Bitcoin traded at about $80,950 at 17:29 UTC on Thursday 29 October, up roughly 0.4% over 24 hours, on a day when the US economy looked stronger than it has in a year and Alphabet lost about 13% on Wall Street. Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised pace in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate published at 12:30 UTC, and initial jobless claims fell to 194,000. The Nasdaq Composite was down 1.47% at 17:43 UTC. Bitcoin did not take a second leg down with it.
So why did hawkish data and a sharp tech sell-off leave the bitcoin price today inside the $79,600 to $81,700 range it has kept for several days? Most of the day’s drop came before New York opened. CoinDesk recorded a slide from above $81,700 to about $79,800 during the Asian session, and by 11:11 UTC bitcoin was 1.4% lower since midnight UTC. After the 13:30 UTC open it climbed back above $81,000. The range also has firm edges: light leverage underneath, and about 4 million coins bought above $85,000 waiting overhead. Friday’s $11 billion options expiry on Deribit falls inside it.
Two things are not known yet as this piece is written. The US close (20:00 UTC) has not happened, so every stock and yield figure below is an intraday print with its time. The US spot bitcoin ETF flows for 29 October are not published either; Farside and SoSoValue usually post them after the close, and we will not guess them.
A US economy running hot: GDP at 3.4%, claims at 194,000
The BEA released two reports at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (12:30 UTC, with US daylight time still in force until Sunday). The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP showed real growth of 3.4% at an annual rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. It is a first reading: the second estimate is due on 25 November. Forecasts varied by outlet: Yahoo Finance and Invezz had about 3.1%, Cointelegraph and FXStreet 3.2%. Either way, the print beat them.
The BEA credited investment, consumer spending and government spending, partly offset by lower exports. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which combine consumer spending and private fixed investment, rose at a 4.9% rate. Chris Rupkey of FwdBonds, quoted by CNBC and cited by Cointelegraph, said growth was “powering ahead despite the uncertainty of geopolitical risks”.
Inflation did not cool. The September personal income and outlays report showed the PCE price index up 0.5% on the month, after 0.3% in August, and 3.6% over a year. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over a year. In August, as first published by the BEA on 30 September, the two annual rates were 3.4% and 3.0%, so both picked up again. Invezz noted that the annual headline came in 0.1 point below the 3.7% it had expected, which makes the release roughly in line with forecasts rather than a fresh shock. Personal income rose 0.2% and spending 0.5%, both a touch under Invezz’s forecasts.
The labour market was the third piece. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 194,000 in the week to 24 October, against about 199,000 expected, according to FXStreet’s report on the Labor Department figures. The prior week was revised to 195,000, the four-week average slipped to 196,750 and continuing claims fell by 21,000 to 1.701 million. Invezz put the September unemployment rate at 4.2%.
| Indicator (US) | Latest | Previous | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP, Q3 2026, advance (annualised) | 3.4% | 2.2% (Q2) | BEA, 29 Oct |
| PCE price index, September, m/m | +0.5% | +0.3% | BEA, 29 Oct |
| PCE price index, y/y | 3.6% | 3.4% (August) | BEA |
| Core PCE, y/y | 3.1% | 3.0% (August) | BEA |
| Initial jobless claims, week to 24 Oct | 194,000 | 195,000 (revised) | Labor Dept via FXStreet |
| Continuing claims, week to 17 Oct | 1.701 million | -21,000 on the week | Labor Dept via FXStreet |
Put together, that is an economy growing above 3% with inflation running close to twice the Fed’s 2% goal and very few layoffs. It is the mix that makes a rate cut hard to argue for. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, with two of its members voting for a hike; our analysis of Wednesday’s Fed decision has the detail and we will not repeat it.
Rate-hike odds for December, and a 10-year yield that fell anyway
Traders were already leaning towards a December hike before the data. FXStreet reported at 13:57 UTC that CME FedWatch put the chance of a hike at the 8-9 December meeting at about 83%. That figure comes from a single source and we could not check it directly on CME’s page. On the prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged about 73% on 26 October, according to a DeFi Rate snapshot. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on Wednesday, as quoted by Invezz, that “on the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate, conditions are quite positive.”
Here is the odd part. The 10-year Treasury yield did not jump on the data. It stood at 4.999% at 17:27 UTC, down 4.6 basis points on the day, after a range of 4.949% to 5.032%, according to Yahoo Finance. It had closed near 5.05% on Wednesday. The dollar was firm (the euro hit a 17-month low of 1.1104 after the ECB held its rates, per FXStreet), but the move in long-term yields took one source of pressure off bitcoin rather than adding one. With a hike already seen as likely by both the futures and the prediction markets, the data confirmed a view more than it changed one.
Alphabet’s 13% drop drags the Nasdaq, small caps go the other way
The second shock came from earnings. Alphabet’s class A shares traded at $283.17 at 17:42 UTC, down 12.84% from Wednesday’s close of $324.89, according to Yahoo Finance. Yahoo put the loss in market value at nearly $500 billion. Invezz reported that Alphabet’s adjusted earnings per share and its revenue missed expectations, that free cash flow was negative by $9.07 billion and that the company kept its 2026 capital spending forecast at $195 billion to $205 billion. The market read it as a bill for artificial intelligence that keeps rising before the revenue catches up.
The damage stayed mostly inside big tech. At 17:43 UTC the S&P 500 was at 7,705.11, down 0.50%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,159.34, down 1.47% (Yahoo Finance quotes). In the same early-afternoon window, Yahoo’s live blog showed the Dow down 0.48% at 52,225.14 and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies up 0.95%. The VIX volatility gauge was at 16.56, which is calm. Microsoft rose after its own results. Amazon and Intel report after the close, so the tech picture can still change tonight.
Crypto venues now trade that story directly. CoinDesk reported that open interest in perpetual futures on Alphabet stock rose 77% as the share price fell about 10% before the opening bell. Traders who once had to wait for 13:30 UTC to act on a US earnings miss can now do it at 3 a.m. on a crypto exchange.
Bitcoin price today: the selling came in Asia, not in New York
The timeline matters more than the daily change. Bitcoin dropped from above $81,700 to about $79,800 during Thursday’s Asian session, CoinDesk reported in a story first published at 03:32 UTC and updated at 10:57 UTC. Cointelegraph put the low at $79,607, after Wednesday’s daily close at 00:00 UTC. In the same hours Samsung fell 4% in Seoul despite a record profit and Nasdaq-100 futures slid 1.1%. At 11:11 UTC, CoinDesk had bitcoin near $80,100, down 1.4% since midnight UTC. Our midday report on the dip to $79,600 covered that leg.
Then came the data at 12:30 UTC and the stock market open at 13:30 UTC. Instead of a second leg down, bitcoin climbed back above $81,000 after Wall Street opened and touched $81,547 on Bitstamp, according to Cointelegraph, which gave no time for that high. By 17:29 UTC it had given part of that back, to about $80,950, 0.7% lower than an hour earlier. Ether sat at about $2,343, solana at $101.3 and XRP at $1.29 at the same time, according to coindaro’s market snapshot. Total crypto market value was about $2.73 trillion, bitcoin’s share 59.4%, and the Fear and Greed index read 51, neutral.
This is the pattern that explains the day. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 was 0.64, CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole wrote on Thursday morning, so it does move with tech. On Thursday it moved with tech futures overnight, after Alphabet’s results came out following Wednesday’s close. When cash stocks opened lower, bitcoin had already taken that hit, and the US session added data and earnings it had partly traded in Asia. One caveat: the sources give the low and the rebound without exact minutes, so the timeline is by session, not by the hour.
Altcoins took more of the overnight damage. At 11:11 UTC CoinDesk listed NEAR down 7.8%, RAY 8.9%, JTO 6.8% and ENA 6%, with its memecoin index down 3.4%. The one large token going the other way had its own story: Hyperliquid’s HYPE rose about 15% to around $91.21 by 14:44 UTC, The Block reported, after NYSE owner ICE moved to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US; it was up 18.3% over 24 hours at 17:29 UTC. That move is covered in our report on ICE and Hyperliquid; it says little about the wider market.
Why bitcoin stays boxed under $82,000
A tech sell-off failed to push bitcoin lower, and strong growth did not lift it either. The data on leverage, holders and funds shows why.
Leverage is light, so there is little to flush out
Liquidations were modest for a day like this. CoinDesk counted $337.4 million of futures positions closed by force in 24 hours at 11:11 UTC, of which $72.5 million in bitcoin and $71.6 million in ether; an earlier CoinDesk update at 10:57 UTC put the total at $356 million, with $205 million of longs. Futures volume rose 21.8% to $198.8 billion while open interest fell 1.9%. Funding rates stayed positive for most major coins but lower than the day before. In plain terms, traders cut positions instead of piling on new ones, so a falling Nasdaq found few forced sellers to trigger. Our glossary entry on liquidation explains how those forced closes work.
Four million coins are waiting to break even above $85,000
The ceiling has a name. Long-term holders, wallets that have held coins for more than 155 days, own about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025, according to Glassnode data reported by Decrypt. At about $81,400 those coins were worth roughly $326 billion. More than half of all long-term holder coins were bought above the current price. The $84,000 to $85,000 band has turned bitcoin back four times this year, with only five daily closes above it since January; the last break, in September, peaked at $87,100. “$85K keeps turning $BTC back,” Glassnode wrote on X.
Tim Sun of HashKey, quoted by Decrypt, put the risk in one line: “Any rally above $85,000 could face selling pressure from long-term holders seeking to break even.” His broader point was that the market lacks new buyers more than it suffers from panic sellers.
ETF buyers sit right at their own cost price
The spot ETFs add a second, lower ceiling. Glassnode estimates the average cost basis of US spot bitcoin ETF holders at $81,500; James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence puts it just under $82,000, Decrypt reported. That is a few hundred dollars above where bitcoin traded on Thursday afternoon. Funds that bought in recent months are close to flat, and Decrypt put their average unrealised loss at about $2.63 billion as of Monday, a figure based on flows only.
Flows have turned positive but small. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $137 million on Wednesday 28 October, a third straight day of inflows that brought the three-day total to $423.7 million, according to Farside data cited by CoinDesk. The TFTC tally has $137.3 million for the day, almost all of it in BlackRock’s IBIT ($136.0 million), and SoSoValue data cited by Decrypt gives about $424 million for Monday to Wednesday. That came after $635.5 million left on 22 October (TFTC). Over 20 sessions in October to 28 October, net flows were about $111.2 million, per TFTC. Galaxy Research, cited by Decrypt, found that nine hedge funds and banks cut their spot ETF exposure by 68,000 BTC as the cash-and-carry trade dried up. The 29 October figures are not published yet.
Sellers are getting smaller, and so are buyers
One Glassnode figure points the other way. Realised losses shrink with each dip: about $630 million of net daily losses at the August low against about $27 million on the 24 October dip, Decrypt reported. People who wanted out at a loss have mostly left. Bids of about $42 million sat between $78,000 and $79,000 on Binance, and the average cost of newer buyers was $75,800. That is a floor of sorts, not a strong one.
Friday’s $11 billion Deribit expiry and the $78,000 max pain
About $11 billion of bitcoin options in notional value expire on Deribit on Friday 30 October, Decrypt’s Jose Antonio Lanz reported. That is about 135,000 BTC, split between 88,700 calls and 46,500 puts, roughly a third of Deribit’s open bitcoin options. Deribit’s monthly options expire on the last Friday of the month at 08:00 UTC, according to its support documentation. The expiry is about 70% larger than August’s $6.4 billion and smaller than March’s $15 billion.
The “max pain” price, the level at which the most options would expire worthless, is $78,000, about $3,500 under where bitcoin traded when the article was written. The put-to-call ratio is 0.52. The largest call positions sit at $95,000 and $100,000, the largest put cluster at $70,000, and about 86% of contracts are out of the money. Decrypt added its own caution: the $11 billion is a face value, and settling at the current price would move about $130 million, around 1% of the headline.
Max pain is the level where option buyers would lose the most, not a price the market has to reach. Decrypt pointed to a different effect: option sellers may have to buy or sell bitcoin to hedge as the price moves, which can add to swings with no news behind them. That hedging flow ends when the October contracts expire on Friday morning. The next expiry of similar size, about 135,500 BTC, falls on 25 December, about two weeks after the Fed’s December meeting.
The levels traders are watching
| Level | What sits there | Source |
|---|---|---|
| $70,000 | Largest put cluster for Friday’s expiry | Decrypt |
| $75,800 | Average cost basis of newer buyers | Glassnode via Decrypt |
| $78,000 to $79,000 | Max pain; about $42 million of bids on Binance | Decrypt, Glassnode |
| $79,600 | Thursday’s low in the Asian session | Cointelegraph, CoinDesk |
| $81,400 | Level to reclaim by the weekly close | Rekt Capital via Cointelegraph |
| $81,500 to $82,000 | Average cost of US spot ETF holders | Glassnode, Bloomberg Intelligence |
| $84,000 to $85,000 | Four rejections this year; long-term holders’ break-even zone starts | Glassnode via Decrypt |
| $87,100 | September peak, the last break above $85,000 | Glassnode via Decrypt |
| $95,000 and $100,000 | Largest call positions for Friday | Decrypt |
The trader Rekt Capital, quoted by Cointelegraph, said bitcoin needs to reclaim $81,400 by the weekly close, which falls at 00:00 UTC on Monday 2 November, and expects “lots of zig-zagging” between $80,400 and $81,400 in the meantime. October is also heading for a monthly loss of about 3.3%, Cointelegraph noted. The month has averaged a 26% gain since 2010, a statistic of the past and not a forecast.
What would change the picture: the expiry, the jobs report and the Fed on 8-9 December
The range reading above would be proved wrong by a clean break of either edge, and the calendar has three dates that could cause one.
Friday 30 October: expiry and month-end
The Deribit contracts settle at 08:00 UTC. A quick move well outside $78,000 to $82,000 after that hour would suggest the hedging around those contracts had been holding the price in place. The October monthly candle closes at 00:00 UTC on Sunday 1 November. US clocks go back on 1 November, so from Monday the New York open and the release of ETF flows move one hour later in UTC terms: 9:30 a.m. Eastern becomes 14:30 UTC.
Friday 6 November: the October jobs report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October payrolls and unemployment at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, which will be 13:30 UTC after the clock change. With claims near 194,000, a strong report would add to the case for a December hike. A weak one would be the first real crack in the story the data told on Thursday. It is the next scheduled US release of that weight.
Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December: the Fed
The December FOMC meeting comes with new economic projections. The next BEA updates of GDP and PCE land on 25 November, and November’s jobs report on 4 December, both before the meeting. If the odds of a hike stay near 80% into December, the hike itself may move markets less than the guidance that comes with it.
The price zones that would prove the range broken
On the upside, a daily close above $85,000 would mean buyers absorbed the first layer of long-term holder supply; Glassnode counts only five such closes since January. On the downside, a break of $78,000 after the expiry would take bitcoin under max pain and the Binance bids, towards the $75,800 cost basis of newer buyers. Between those two zones, Thursday showed that hot data and a 13% fall in a megacap were not enough on their own to break the range.
Two outside risks remain. Oil: WTI crude was coiling near $102 on Thursday, and CoinDesk’s chart work put the upper line near $105.50, with bitcoin’s correlation to oil at -0.47 since the Iran war began. And tech: if Amazon or Intel disappoint after the close, the overnight session in Asia will test once more whether bitcoin keeps trading with Nasdaq futures before New York wakes up.
The US close and the 29 October ETF flows were not out when this piece was written. Nothing in this piece is investment advice.