The bitcoin price today stood at $77,888.44 on Coinbase at 17:57 UTC on Sunday 1 November, with US stocks and spot ETFs due back at 14:30 UTC on Monday and a midterm vote, a Bank of England decision and a jobs report all inside the next five days. That is 1.5% above Wall Street’s Friday close, when Coinbase’s 20:00 UTC candle opened at $76,733, by our calculation, and the gain came on very little volume.
So the question for this week is which of its events can still move the price. Our answer is that the dates in the macro diary matter less than three tests that come from inside crypto: Binance’s reserve proof, the first US ETF flows since Friday’s $643 million exit, and whether Strategy is still buying. The “CME gap” that older articles still describe no longer exists. The vote itself has the weakest record of all, and the rates market is the one outside force that could overrule this reading.
Our Saturday report told the week session by session, and this morning’s Asia report covered the weekend’s leverage. This piece looks ahead only.
Bitcoin price today: 2.3% above Friday’s low, 4.9% below Thursday’s high
The weekend barely tested anything. On Coinbase’s one-minute candles from 00:00 UTC on Saturday to 17:30 UTC on Sunday, bitcoin ran from a low of $76,954.57 at 04:36 UTC on Saturday to a high of $78,125.91 at 09:00 UTC on Sunday, a range of 1.52%. Hourly volume on Coinbase never went above 241 BTC in that stretch and fell as low as 37 BTC, against 801 BTC in the 19:00 UTC hour on Friday. That comparison covers one exchange, not the whole market, but a gain made on those volumes has not yet been tested by anyone large.
| Level (Coinbase BTC-USD unless stated) | When | Distance from $77,888 | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| $81,890 | Thu 29 Oct, 16:09 UTC | +5.1% | Last week’s high, four hours before the Binance hack began at about 20:05 UTC |
| $80,000 | Round number | +2.7% | Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone flags lasting weakness below it as a risk for the sector, according to Cointribune |
| $78,634.80 | Fri 30 Oct | +1.0% | Friday’s daily high |
| $76,141.02 | Fri 30 Oct, 18:52 UTC | -2.2% | Last week’s low, and the lowest daily low since 17 September ($75,921.88) |
| About $76,050 | Week to 25 Oct | -2.4% | Our 50-week average of Sunday closes |
| $74,887.50 | Tue 15 Sep | -3.9% | September’s low, with $74,911.53 on 16 September |
Distances are our arithmetic from the $77,888.44 level at 17:57 UTC.
The 50-week line deserves a word, because it now carries a stated bull-case condition. Alex Thorn of Galaxy was quoted by Bitcoin.com News on Sunday as saying that “invalidation of the thesis in this report requires a month below 50-week [moving average] without recovery.” October has just closed, so we ran the test. A simple average of the 50 weekly closes on Coinbase gives about $76,050 with weeks ending on Sunday and about $75,710 with weeks ending on Saturday 31 October. October’s close of $77,423.98 sits about 2% above either figure, so the condition has not been met on that method. Thorn’s report may use another venue or cut-off, and we have not seen his calculation. What the sum does show is how close Friday came: the low of $76,141 was about $90 above the Sunday-based average.
That close also fixes October’s loss at 7.34% on Coinbase’s BTC-USD candles, from $83,556.14 to $77,423.98 on UTC months, by our calculation. CoinGlass data gives 7.32%, according to Bitcoin.com News, and Binance’s BTCUSDT monthly candle, the basis of this morning’s report, gives 7.22%. The month is the same; the venue and the pair differ.
The CME gap ended on 29 May, so there is nothing to fill
For years, bitcoin traders watched a simple pattern. CME futures stopped on Friday afternoon, spot bitcoin kept trading, and Sunday’s reopening could leave an empty space on the futures chart. Trader lore said price would come back to fill it, a habit of chart-watchers that never became an established rule. Older articles still repeat it.
The mechanism has gone. CME announced on 19 February that its crypto futures and options would trade around the clock from 29 May, The Block reported, and Trade Informer confirmed the launch on 2 June. All crypto futures and options on CME Globex and ClearPort now trade through the weekend, except Spot-Quoted futures. The only scheduled stop is a two-hour break on Saturdays, 02:00 to 04:00 Central Time, which by our conversion was 07:00 to 09:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October and becomes 08:00 to 10:00 UTC from Saturday 7 November, now that US clocks have changed. The first weekend brought more than 7,200 contracts, about $50 million in notional value, so liquidity started small.
We looked at this weekend’s tape as well, and it is a weak check. Yahoo Finance’s delayed BTC=F series has hourly prints in only 13 of the 42 hours since 00:00 UTC on Saturday, with none between 03:00 UTC on Saturday and 04:00 UTC on Sunday. Its last print was $78,260 at 17:16 UTC on Sunday, about 0.3% above Coinbase in the same minute. Thin data cannot show that trading ran without a break, so the point rests on CME’s published schedule. We could not read CME’s official settlement prices, because its site blocks scripts, and we publish no gap estimate.
Where a gap still exists: ETFs and stocks at 14:30 UTC on Monday
Funds and shares do close, and from Monday the New York opening bell rings at 14:30 UTC, because US clocks went back early on Sunday. BlackRock’s IBIT and the other spot funds last traded on Friday, when the session ended with bitcoin at $76,733 on Coinbase. At 17:57 UTC on Sunday, the coin stood 1.5% higher. If that holds, those products open with a catch-up of that size, along with the listed miners and treasury companies. This is the only version of the gap left, and it closes by itself at the bell. It sets a price for the funds and gives no target for bitcoin.
Binance’s proof will describe 31 October, not Sunday’s withdrawals
The first crypto-internal test is the one with the disputed date. Binance took a new reserve snapshot at 00:00 UTC on 31 October, and Bitcoin.com News reported on Sunday that an updated report was expected on Monday 2 November, with the zero-knowledge proof still being generated. CoinDesk wrote on 31 October that the full cryptographic proof was expected by 3 November, and CryptoTicker on Sunday gave Tuesday 3 November. A Binance statement quoted by Cointelegraph says the proof takes approximately 40 to 50 hours to generate, without saying when the clock started. We have not read Binance’s own post, so both dates stand.
The snapshot predates the restart of withdrawals. If the proof is built on it, a clean result would confirm that the books were covered on 31 October and say nothing about the money that has left since.
And money has left. Bitcoin.com News, citing Binance’s own update on X, reports $4.649 billion of withdrawals and $1.01 billion of deposits between 06:00 and 15:30 UTC on Sunday, a net outflow of about $3.64 billion. That is about 2.1% of the $171 billion of assets in reserve data dated 28 October. Withdrawals peaked at $733 million in the 30-minute interval from 08:00 UTC, and net flows were negative in every interval. Binance now says about 95% of the stolen amount has been replaced from its own resources, up from 90%. The hack itself is covered in our running file on the attack.
Nine and a half hours of outflows after days of frozen accounts look like a queue clearing, and 2.1% is a long way from a run. That view has a limit. It holds only if the pace drops on Monday. A second day near Sunday’s rate would be a different story, and the proof would not answer it.
Monday’s ETF tables are the first word from Wall Street’s holders
Friday’s exit is known: -$643.2 million on Farside’s basis, -$643.33 million on SoSoValue’s, as CryptoSlate and FinanceFeeds reported from each provider, with the fund-by-fund split in our earlier coverage. On the Farside basis, as CryptoSlate reports it, that one day wiped out the $440.8 million that came in from Monday to Thursday and left the week of 26 to 30 October down $202.4 million. Decrypt’s own tracker, a separate count, shows about $202 million out for the week and about $516 million out for October. We could not open Farside or SoSoValue directly, and we found no weekly total from SoSoValue. Ether funds are in a five-day outflow streak worth about $431 million, on the same tracker.
What is not known is whether Friday was a reaction or a start. Both daily tables normally appear on Monday evening UTC. CoinShares’ weekly report usually lands on Monday morning and covers products worldwide, so it will not match them. One number gives this some weight: Bitfinex Alpha put the average ETF cost basis at $84,364 on 28 October, which is 8.3% above $77,888 by our arithmetic. On that figure the average holder is at a loss, though it was calculated before Friday’s selling changed the mix of holders.
Strategy’s next filing tests a 3.2% cushion
Strategy usually files its weekly 8-K on Monday morning, and this one has more to answer than most. Its last weekly filing, dated 26 October, said it had neither bought nor sold bitcoin in the week of 19 to 25 October. It holds about 848,517 BTC at an average of $75,446, and $77,888 is about 3.2% above that average, by our calculation. Its third-quarter results, filed on 29 October, give the same holdings as of 25 October. We checked EDGAR at about 17:55 UTC on Sunday and found no 8-K after 29 October.
Michael Saylor posted “We found room for even more orange.” on X on Sunday, according to Bitcoin.com News, with a chart still showing 848,517 BTC. After a similar post on 11 October, Strategy announced a purchase of 250 BTC, about $21.5 million, on 12 October, as its press release and 13 October filing show. A hint is not a filing, and that precedent was small. The same outlet gives $242.4 million of cash and a $4.83 billion reserve for dividends and interest as of 25 October, and that cash alone would buy about 3,100 BTC at $77,888, by our arithmetic. Whether any purchase happened is unknown until the filing appears.
Beyond this week, MSCI’s final list of non-operating companies is due on Wednesday 11 November, with its rule taking effect at the close of 30 November. Our report on the MSCI rule sets out what that could mean for Strategy.
Rates are the one outside force that could overrule this reading
The rates market is pricing hikes, not cuts. The Federal Reserve held at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October by 10 votes to 2, and both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted a quarter-point increase. FatTail’s RateWatch, which calculates from last-trade prices of 30-day fed funds futures, showed 69.4% odds of a hike on 9 December at 17:00 ET on Friday 30 October (21:00 UTC), down from 77.3% at Thursday’s close. That is FatTail’s figure, not CME FedWatch, which we did not open. Treasury’s par yield curve put the two-year at 4.56% on Friday, 56 basis points above the top of the Fed’s range, by our calculation.
Yet the evidence that rates are steering bitcoin right now is thin. Over October, the 10-year yield fell from 5.29% to 4.94%, which is 35 basis points of easier long-term money, and bitcoin still lost more than 7%. Between Thursday’s close and Friday evening, hike odds dropped about eight points, and bitcoin printed last week’s low on Friday. Two observations prove little, but both ran the opposite way from a rates-driven market, and McGlone’s IBIT/TLT ratio, at 81 on 30 October against a base of 100 at the end of 2024 according to Cointribune, tells the same story of bitcoin lagging bonds.
The real macro date is Friday 6 November, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October payrolls at 13:30 UTC. September brought +29,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment, according to FatTail, and FactSet’s estimate for October, as cited by CryptoTicker, is +55,000. October CPI follows on Tuesday 10 November, also at 13:30 UTC. The ISM manufacturing report matters here too: September’s prices-paid index reached 77.9 against 72.3 expected, InvestingLive reported. ISM’s own calendar sits behind a login, so we could not confirm the date of the October number, which normally comes on the first business day of the month. The Bank of England decides on Thursday 5 November.
Bitcoin and the midterm elections: two votes, two crypto accidents
Tuesday’s vote is the headline event, and bitcoin’s record around it is the weakest evidence of the week. Only two midterms appear in Coinbase’s candle history, and in both of them the big moves came from inside crypto.
| Date (UTC day) | Open | Close | Change | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2018 (vote) | $6,404.00 | $6,448.50 | +0.7% | No reaction |
| 14 Nov 2018 | $6,259.35 | $5,605.46 | -10.4% | Bitcoin Cash split dispute |
| 19 Nov 2018 | $5,560.00 | $4,733.50 | -14.9% | Selling continues after the 14 November break |
| 8 Nov 2022 (vote) | $20,593.34 | $18,550.25 | -9.9% | Binance signs non-binding deal for FTX |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $18,546.07 | $15,891.96 | -14.3% | Binance walks away from the deal |
Source: Coinbase daily candles, UTC days; percentages are our arithmetic.
In 2018, the fall came a week after the vote. SiliconAngle tied the 14 November drop to the Bitcoin Cash dispute, and CoinDesk later called that day’s break below $6,200 the likely spark for the wider sell-off. In 2022, the 9.9% loss landed on Election Day itself, and a chart alone might suggest a link. The Block’s account dates Binance’s letter of intent for FTX to 8 November and its exit to 9 November. We found no source tying either fall to the US vote. Two samples are not a statistic, and they should not be read as a rule.
Stocks offer more history and no pattern. The S&P 500 moved +0.37% in the session after the 2010 vote, +0.57% after 2014, +2.12% after 2018 and -2.08% after 2022, according to FatTail’s calculation from Cboe closes. Options traders seem to agree. Bitfinex Alpha said on 28 October that the election “is being priced as part of a broader event cluster”, with implied volatility at 38.1% for the 6 November expiry and 35.7% for 27 November. That reading also predates the hack.
The same note priced the 6 November straddle at about 4.8% either way, from roughly $77,100 to $84,900. Bitcoin went through the bottom of that band on Friday, so the band is out of date and we do not use it as a test. Last week’s biggest move came from a hack that no calendar listed.
The week in order, with what each date can and cannot settle
| When (UTC) | Event | What it can settle |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov, usually morning US time | Strategy weekly 8-K, if filed | Whether the treasury bid is back |
| Mon 2 Nov, 14:30 | New York opens; IBIT and spot funds trade | The 1.5% catch-up |
| Mon 2 Nov, evening | Farside and SoSoValue tables | Whether Friday’s exit continued |
| Mon 2 or Tue 3 Nov (sources differ) | Binance full reserve proof | The 31 October books only |
| Tue 3 Nov | US midterm vote | Little, on the record above |
| Wed 4 Nov | First full US session after the vote | Equity reaction |
| Thu 5 Nov | Bank of England decision | Global rates mood |
| Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 | October payrolls | The December hike odds |
| Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 | October CPI | The same, after this week |
| Wed 11 Nov | MSCI final list | Strategy’s index status |
What would prove this reading wrong
Our reading is that crypto-internal tests outrank the calendar this week, and that macro acts through rates that already price a December hike. It holds if bitcoin stays between about $76,100 and $80,000 on Monday while ETF and Binance outflows fade. These outcomes would break it:
- Bitcoin falls below $76,141 while the ISM prices-paid index prints above 77.9 and the two-year yield rises. Macro would then be in charge, with September’s low near $74,900 further down.
- Monday’s ETF outflows exceed the $643 million of 30 October on both Farside and SoSoValue. Fund selling would then be leading the price, and the Friday exit would not have been a one-off.
- Binance publishes a clean proof, net withdrawals fade, and bitcoin falls anyway. The hack would then not have been the weight on the price, and our main argument would fail.
- Payrolls on 6 November land far above +55,000 and December hike odds go back above 80%, with bitcoin falling on the day. Rates would be dominating.
- A sharp move starts on the US vote itself, with no crypto-specific trigger. Two samples are all we have, and a third could look different.
One test cuts across all of them. If Strategy files no purchase again, its preferred stock STRC, last reported by us at $97.72 on 18 October, would be the place to watch against its $100 par value, because a weak STRC limits the money available for buying. We have not read a current STRC price for this piece.
The first of these answers arrives at 14:30 UTC on Monday, and the first numbers come with the ETF tables that evening.