How will midterms affect crypto? Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November, and the two questions crypto readers keep asking have answers of very different quality. On bitcoin, our own count from daily closes shows it fell between 15% and 50% after the vote in 2014, 2018 and 2022 before finding its low, far less in two of those years than the 65%, 52% and 27% now circulating. On crypto law, DeFi Rate‘s aggregation of Kalshi and Polymarket, read at 6:49 AM ET (11:49 UTC) on 2 November, priced a Democratic Senate at 72%. A Democratic majority would open the Banking Committee gavel to its top Democrat, Elizabeth Warren, a leading Senate critic of the CLARITY Act.
Three past midterms are a tiny sample. What follows is a record and a map of who decides what. It is no forecast, and nothing here says what anyone should do with their money.
This piece leaves the campaign money aside: the nearly $170 million that CoinDesk counts from three crypto super PACs is covered in our report on the FEC outage and the crypto PACs.
Bitcoin after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, from the daily closes
Our method is simple, and we state it because the result depends on it. We took bitcoin’s daily close in UTC on election day from Yahoo Finance’s BTC-USD series, then the lowest daily close in the 120 days that followed, and the closes 30 and 365 days later. We read the data on 2 November at about 12:05 UTC and compared it with the Coin Metrics community data set, whose prices stop in May 2026.
| Vote | Close on vote day | Lowest close after | Days later | Change to low | After 30 days | After 365 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2014 | $330.49 | $178.10 (14 Jan 2015) | 71 | -46.1% | +11.8% | +24.5% |
| 6 Nov 2018 | $6,461.01 | $3,236.76 (15 Dec 2018) | 39 | -49.9% | -45.5% | +44.9% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | $18,541.27 | $15,787.28 (21 Nov 2022) | 13 | -14.9% | -7.1% | +92.3% |
The path was different each time. In 2014 bitcoin rose 11.3% in the week after the vote and was still 11.8% higher a month later; the fall came in December and January. In 2018 it barely moved for a week (down 1.6%). The fall began on 14 November, and the first close below $3,600 came on 6 December.
2022 is the awkward one. Bitcoin lost 10% on election day itself as the FTX crisis broke, the day Binance announced a rescue deal. Binance walked away on 9 November and FTX filed for bankruptcy on 11 November. Calling that a midterm effect would be hard to defend.
Twelve months on, bitcoin stood higher each time, by 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% from the vote-day close. The average is 53.9%, or 53.8% on Coin Metrics. Binance Research gives the same 54% average post-midterm gain in a report relayed by CoinMarketCap Academy.
Why the 65%, 52% and 27% in circulation do not match ours
Those three figures come from analyst Ali Martinez, who also lists 72% for 2010. A Bitcoin.com News article of 2 November repeats them as falls “after” the midterms, next to a separate count of 71, 39 and 13 days between vote and low. Our day counts agree with that second set. The percentages do not agree with ours, and the article does not say which start price they use.
The same three years can give very different numbers, as this table shows. Each line is a fair question; they are just different questions.
| What is measured | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figures attributed to Ali Martinez | -65% | -52% | -27% | Start price not stated |
| Vote-day close to lowest close after | -46.1% | -49.9% | -14.9% | Yahoo Finance |
| Same, Coin Metrics | -46.7% | -50.6% | -14.9% | Coin Metrics |
| Highest close in the 60 days before the vote to lowest close after | -63.5% | -52.8% | -29.5% | Coin Metrics |
| Calendar year, 31 Dec to 31 Dec | -56.0% | -73.5% | -64.4% | Coin Metrics |
| Year’s highest close to year’s lowest close | -66.1% | -81.4% | -66.9% | Coin Metrics |
The pre-vote line comes closest to the Martinez set. Our reading, which neither he nor Bitcoin.com states, is that his figures start before election day, from a pre-vote high. It remains a reading: measured to our lowest closes, 65% and 27% imply start prices near $500 and $21,600, which are neither the vote-day closes nor the 60-day highs in our data.
Two other published sets also look like different yardsticks, on our reading. The calendar-year line matches the 56%, 73% and 64% that Binance Research gives for midterm years, and the year-high line fits CryptoQuant’s claim, reported by Bitcoin.com, of losses above 60% in each midterm year. Most of those falls happened before the vote. In 2018 bitcoin had already lost more than 60% of its January high by election day.
Three details that change the count
Data provider first. On Yahoo the 2022 low is the close of 21 November, 13 days after the vote. On Coin Metrics it is 9 November, one day after, at $15,758.29, with 21 November just $20 higher. The tidy “13 days” rests on a gap of about 0.1% between two closes.
Closes against intraday lows second. Using Yahoo’s lowest intraday prices, the three falls from the vote-day close become 48.1%, 50.6% and 15.9%.
History of the series third. Yahoo’s BTC-USD data starts on 17 September 2014, so it cannot show the full 60 days before that year’s vote. That is why the pre-vote line uses Coin Metrics.
Three midterms, three different results, and one bigger cycle
The political outcomes give no pattern to lean on. In 2014 Republicans won the Senate and kept the House. In 2018 Democrats won the House while Republicans kept the Senate. In 2022 Republicans won the House while Democrats kept the Senate. Bitcoin set a lower close after all three, which says little. On Coin Metrics data from January 2014 to May 2026, a lower close followed within 71 days of 89% of all days, and one at least 15% lower followed 42% of them (89% and 40% on Yahoo’s shorter series). A low is also only ever picked with hindsight.
The calendar overlaps with something else. Each of those votes fell roughly two to two and a half years after a bitcoin halving, the same phase of the supply cycle, and tomorrow’s comes about 30 months after the April 2024 halving. All three also sat inside a bear market or a crisis of the moment: the aftermath of Mt. Gox, the slide from the 2017 peak, and FTX. The Bitcoin.com author makes the same caution about three data points. No link between an election and the price has been shown.
Bitcoin traded near $77,800 around 11:35 UTC on 2 November, down about 3% over seven days, with the Fear and Greed index at 37, according to our market snapshot. Our morning market report has the day’s data calendar.
How will midterms affect crypto law: what each result changes
The market prices first, with their limits. DeFi Rate’s 6:49 AM ET reading averages bid and ask midpoints: Democrats 72% for the Senate (Kalshi 71.5 cents, built from two contracts, and Polymarket 73 cents) and 94% for the House (93.8 and 95). Those are prices, not certainties, and the same page still shows older October figures lower down. On the Kalshi lines DeFi Rate shows, Sherrod Brown stood at 71 cents in the Ohio special election, James Talarico at 75 in Texas and Roy Cooper at 97 in North Carolina, while in Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson stood at 52 and Democrat Josh Turek at 49. Questions about insider trading on these markets are in our report on the midterm bets Polymarket investigated.
The Senate stands at 53 Republicans and 47 on the Democratic side, counting two independents. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for 51; 35 seats are on the ballot, 33 regular ones plus specials in Florida and Ohio.
Eight Senate Banking seats are on the ballot, and three members are leaving for certain
Eight of the committee’s 24 members sit in seats elected this year. All eight are Class II, with terms ending on 3 January 2027, according to the public congress-legislators data set and Wikipedia. Ratings and candidates come from Wikipedia’s table of the races, which gives Cook Political Report ratings of 30 October.
| Member | State | Party | 2026 status | Cook rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | South Dakota | R | Running | Solid R |
| Thom Tillis | North Carolina | R | Retiring; Cooper (D) v. Whatley (R) | Likely D (flip) |
| Bill Hagerty | Tennessee | R | Running | Solid R |
| Cynthia Lummis | Wyoming | R | Retiring | Solid R |
| Pete Ricketts | Nebraska | R | Running against Dan Osborn (independent) | Lean R |
| Jack Reed | Rhode Island | D | Running | Solid D |
| Mark Warner | Virginia | D | Running | Solid D |
| Tina Smith | Minnesota | D | Retiring; Flanagan (DFL) v. Tafoya (R) | Lean D |
So the committee changes whoever wins. Lummis chairs its digital assets subcommittee. Tillis made the motion to reconsider that keeps a second floor vote possible, The Defiant reported. Bernie Moreno sits on Banking too, but his Ohio seat is not the one up: the special election is for the seat Jon Husted holds.
The two Democrats who backed the bill in committee, according to Decrypt, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, are not on this ballot: their terms run to 2031. Both tied that vote to the ethics talks, and both voted against cloture in September, Bitcoin.com reported. Mark Warner, whom CryptoSlate names among the Democratic negotiators, is rated Solid D.
Where the CLARITY Act stands on the eve of the vote
The bill, H.R. 3633, passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and cleared Senate Banking 15-9 on 14 May 2026. On 15 September the Senate rejected cloture on the motion to proceed 49-50, 11 short of the 60 required. All 49 yes votes were Republican. Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran and Tillis voted no, Tillis so that he could move to reconsider, according to The Defiant. Elizabeth Warren wrote on X that “Senate Republicans are trying to jam through a crypto bill that would let Trump continue lining his pockets off the crypto industry”. Lummis wrote after the vote that “Senate Democrats proved they were never truly serious about protecting consumers and preserving American leadership”. Both quotes are from Bitcoin.com News on 15 September. We found no second vote on the schedule. Meanwhile the agencies keep working, as our explainer on how the SEC and CFTC are writing US crypto rules sets out.
Before January: nothing changes on paper
Tuesday’s winners do not take office until January, so Tim Scott stays chair and the 60-vote bar stays. According to CryptoSlate, writing on 18 September, the Senate returns on 9 November with floor time contested by nominations, spending and defense bills, and aims to leave by about 18 December. Seven Democratic senators said on 16 September that the vote was a setback, not the end; CryptoSlate’s count still leaves supporters three short of 60 if all seven and Tillis voted yes. Adrian Wall, managing director of the Digital Sovereignty Alliance, said of a lame-duck attempt in September: “It’s going to be very complicated. It’s a long shot.” Whether the result makes Democrats more or less willing to deal in those weeks is unknown, and nobody can show it either way. Any Senate text would also have to go back to the House.
From January if Republicans keep the Senate
If nothing passes, the bill dies with the 119th Congress and sponsors start again, with committees and floor votes redone. Scott’s seat is not up, so a Republican majority points to continuity at the top of Banking. The 60-vote rule would still apply unless the Senate changed it: with 51 Republicans, nine Democrats would be needed even if every Republican agreed, which did not happen on 15 September.
From January if Democrats win the Senate
Warren is the committee’s ranking member, and CoinDesk wrote on 1 November that she is waiting for a chance at the gavel if Democrats win the majority. Chairs set a committee’s agenda and hearings, and Banking oversees the SEC. CoinDesk also relays analysts’ talk of a senior role for Brown, possibly the Agriculture Committee, which covers derivatives regulation, though seniority rules would need an exception. The 60-vote rule would then work the other way: any crypto bill a Democratic majority wrote would need Republican votes. How far other Democrats would follow Warren is an open question; 78 House Democrats voted for the bill in 2025.
The House matters as well
A Democratic House, priced at 94%, would take the chair of House Financial Services from French Hill; the ranking Democrat today is Maxine Waters. A split Congress, with one party in each chamber, would mean any new crypto law needs to pass through both majorities. Rules already in law stay: the GENIUS Act on stablecoins is not on the ballot. Neither is the EU’s MiCA, in force whatever American voters decide.
Dates to watch after the vote
Tuesday night may not settle it. In 2022 Senate control was settled four days after the vote, when Nevada was called. This year the Senate is due back on 9 November, by CryptoSlate’s calendar, and the post-general reports of the super PACs are due at the FEC on 3 December. The 119th Congress ends on 3 January 2027, and with it this version of the CLARITY Act if it has not passed.