Bitcoin spent the night between the Wall Street close and the Asian morning inside a band of about $1,100. On Coinbase, BTC-USD moved between $74,253.01 and $75,349.96 from 21:00 UTC on Monday 9 November to just before 06:00 UTC on Tuesday, and it traded near $74,780 at 05:43 UTC, almost exactly where it stood when US stocks closed ($74,759.85 at 21:00 UTC). The next test is fixed: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October consumer prices (CPI) at 13:30 UTC, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak four and a half hours earlier, at 09:00 UTC in London.
What moved overnight was not the price. Futures traders added positions rather than cutting them, funding rates stayed near neutral, and the supply of dollar stablecoins kept shrinking. The Sunday-night flush and Monday’s US session are covered in our report on the drop to $73,477 and $1.13 billion of liquidations and in our analysis of Wall Street’s 2% jump that bitcoin ignored. This piece starts where they stop.
Bitcoin price overnight: $74,253 to $75,350, and a flat finish
The high came first. Bitcoin climbed during the late US evening and printed $75,349.96 in the 15-minute candle that opened at 23:45 UTC, according to Coinbase Exchange data. The 23:00 UTC hour closed at $75,259.28. From there the price drifted lower through the Tokyo open (00:00 UTC) and the Hong Kong and Singapore open (01:00 UTC).
The only sharp move of the night came in the 03:00 UTC hour, 11:00 in Hong Kong. Bitcoin dropped from $74,762.90 to a low of $74,253.01, about $500, and closed the hour at $74,460.87. That hour carried 457 BTC of volume on Coinbase, the heaviest of the night; the other hours since the US close ranged from roughly 170 to 370 BTC. No catalyst had been reported by 06:00 UTC: no exchange incident, no regulatory headline from Asia, no large liquidation.
The recovery was slow and complete. The 05:00 UTC hour traded between $74,646.25 and $74,820, and Coindaro’s market snapshot showed $74,780 at 05:43 UTC, up 0.67% over 24 hours and down 2.78% over seven days. In euros, BTC-EUR closed the 05:43 UTC minute on Coinbase at €66,638.87.
CoinDesk, writing early on Tuesday, put bitcoin around $74,750, 0.6% lower since midnight UTC, and described a mini-downtrend that started when the price peaked above $87,000 in early October. The overnight range fits that picture: no breakdown, no rebound either.
| Market (Coinbase) | Level | Time (UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| BTC at the US close | $74,759.85 | 21:00, 9 Nov |
| BTC overnight high | $75,349.96 | 23:45 candle, 9 Nov |
| BTC overnight low | $74,253.01 | 03:00 hour, 10 Nov |
| BTC snapshot | $74,780 | 05:43, 10 Nov |
| ETH at the US close | $2,126.86 | 21:00, 9 Nov |
| ETH overnight range | $2,104.84 to $2,134.78 | 22:00 and 03:00 hours |
| ETH snapshot | $2,124 | 05:43, 10 Nov |
Ether followed bitcoin rather than leading it. ETH-USD opened the 21:00 UTC hour at $2,126.86, reached $2,134.78 in the 22:00 hour, fell to $2,104.84 in the same 03:00 UTC hour as bitcoin and was back at $2,124 at 05:43 UTC, a range of 1.4%. Across the market, total capitalisation stood at $2.51 trillion at 05:43 UTC, 1.69% lower over 24 hours, with bitcoin’s dominance at 59.6% and the Fear and Greed index at 32, in its fear zone.
Funding near neutral, open interest higher: positions were rebuilt, not cleared
Sunday night’s flush cleared a lot of leverage. The night that followed put some of it back. On Binance, open interest in the BTCUSDT perpetual contract was 98,687.9 BTC at 05:48 UTC, roughly $7.39 billion at the mark price of $74,920.69. Coindaro counted 97,363 BTC at 17:40 UTC on Monday, so traders added about 1.4% in 12 hours, ahead of a data release that can move the price several percent in minutes.
They did so without paying up. The eight-hour funding rate on that contract settled at +0.0100% at 00:00 UTC, as it did at 08:00 and 16:00 UTC on Monday. That 1-basis-point figure is the baseline Binance’s formula returns when the perpetual trades close to spot. On Bybit, the BTCUSDT rate was +0.0037% with open interest of 67,837 BTC (about $5.08 billion) at 05:48 UTC. For newcomers, our glossary entry on the funding rate explains who pays whom and why a neutral rate matters.
Ether is where the tone changed. Binance’s ETHUSDT funding settled at -0.0047% at 08:00 UTC on Monday, then at +0.0026% and +0.0066% at the next two settlements; the estimate for 08:00 UTC on Tuesday was +0.0055% at 05:48 UTC. Shorts are no longer paying longs to keep their positions open. Open interest stood at 2,242,848 ETH, about $4.77 billion. On Bybit, ETHUSDT funding was +0.0050% on 737,264 ETH of open interest.
No large liquidation was reported overnight. That fits the small range. It also means the leverage that CPI could hit is now in place again.
Options: today’s expiry is small, Friday’s is not
There is no large options expiry to pin the price today. On Deribit, the daily contract expiring at 08:00 UTC on 10 November held 1,495 BTC of calls and 1,095 BTC of puts at 05:49 UTC, a put/call ratio of 0.73 on a small base. The weekly expiry on Friday 13 November, also at 08:00 UTC, is much larger: 20,606 BTC of calls and 12,212 BTC of puts, a ratio of 0.59, almost unchanged since Monday.
The 27 November monthly is more balanced (40,280 calls against 36,591 puts, 0.91), and the 25 December quarterly holds 83,458 BTC of calls and 57,533 of puts. Friday also brings US producer prices (PPI) and bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment, so the week’s real clustering of events comes after today’s print.
Stablecoin supply: $3.85 billion lower in a week
The stablecoin blockchain that runs exactly as written when it is called, holding and moving funds according to its code, without an intermediary able to change the outcome.">smart contract holding reserves of two or more tokens, supplied by users, that a decentralized exchange uses to execute trades automatically at a price set by a formula.">pool, often read as cash waiting to enter the crypto market, kept shrinking into CPI. According to DefiLlama data read at 05:49 UTC, the dollar stablecoins it tracks added up to $293.77 billion, against $293.96 billion a day earlier, $297.62 billion a week earlier and $306.97 billion a month earlier. That is $190 million less in 24 hours, $3.85 billion (1.3%) less in seven days and $13.2 billion (4.3%) less in 30 days.
DefiLlama’s daily chart of dollar-pegged coins points the same way: $293.24 billion on 8 November at 00:00 UTC, $292.97 billion on 9 November and $291.97 billion on 10 November, a day still in progress. The chart and the live total use different cut-offs, so their levels differ slightly, as does the $294.25 billion we gave on Monday evening.
Tether’s USDT accounts for most of the decline. Its supply was $176.21 billion, $570 million lower than a day earlier and $2.33 billion lower over seven days. Circle’s USDC was at $70.42 billion, down $850 million in a week. Sky’s USDS fell $1.09 billion in seven days to $5.40 billion, and World Liberty Financial’s USD1 lost $540 million to $3.34 billion. Ethena’s USDe went the other way, up $400 million to $4.98 billion.
A smaller stablecoin float does not by itself say where the money went: redemptions can reflect funds leaving crypto, issuers cleaning up balance sheets or traders moving into tokenised treasuries. DefiLlama’s figures do not show which. What it does say is that the pool of on-chain dollars available to buy a CPI dip is smaller than a week ago.
Waller at 09:00 UTC, CPI at 13:30 UTC: today’s agenda
Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London at 09:00 UTC (04:00 in New York), according to the Federal Reserve’s November calendar. His text was not on the Fed’s site at 06:00 UTC; the Fed posts speech texts on that calendar page. He is the only Fed official scheduled before the inflation data.
The CPI release itself is confirmed by the BLS release schedule for 10 November at 8:30 AM Eastern time, 13:30 UTC. In between, at 18:00 UTC, the Treasury auctions $42 billion of new 10-year notes maturing in November 2036, according to its 4 November refunding statement. Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, speaks twice after the data, once in Washington and once online.
| Time (UTC) | New York | Paris / Rome | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | 02:00 | 08:00 | Binance Pool shutdown (scheduled) |
| 08:00 | 03:00 | 09:00 | Deribit daily BTC options expiry (small) |
| 09:00 | 04:00 | 10:00 | Fed Governor Waller, economic outlook, London |
| 13:30 | 08:30 | 14:30 | US CPI for October (BLS) |
| 18:00 | 13:00 | 19:00 | US Treasury 10-year note auction, $42 billion |
| 20:30 | 15:30 | 21:30 | Fed Vice Chair Bowman, economic outlook, Washington |
| 23:30 | 18:30 | 00:30 (Wed) | Bowman again, virtual event |
Two crypto items also fall on the day. Binance Pool’s mining service was set to close at 07:00 UTC. The monthly RAIN unlock is due on 10 November at an hour Rain has not published; trackers put the tranche at 37.2 billion RAIN, about 3.2% of supply, as set out on our RAIN unlock event page. RAIN was already 7.06% lower over 24 hours at 05:43 UTC, and no source ties that move to the unlock.
US CPI consensus: 0.3% for the headline, 0.2% for core
Forecasts for October’s headline CPI are not all the same number, and the gap matters for how a print is read. CoinDesk, citing Dow Jones consensus estimates, gives +0.3% month on month for the headline index and +0.2% for core CPI, which excludes food and energy, after +0.6% and +0.3% in September. An investingLive preview published late on Monday has the same 0.3% and 0.2% and puts the Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast at about 0.2% for both measures.
Our Monday evening analysis cited a 0.2% headline forecast from another survey, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast also sits near 0.2%. So the headline expectation spans 0.2% to 0.3%, while core is 0.2% in every source cited here. A 0.6% print like September’s would sit far outside that range.
There will be no official yearly rate. The 43-day government shutdown, from 1 October to 12 November 2025, left no October 2025 index, so the BLS will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026, investingLive reports. FactSet medians imply roughly 4% for headline inflation over a year (from 3.7% in September) and about 2.8% for core (from 2.6%), but those are imputed from a small number of forecasts and are not official.
Why a crypto market watches a US price index at all: inflation data move expectations for the Fed’s rate path, which move bond yields and the dollar, and bitcoin has traded as a risk asset that reacts to both. Our guide to inflation and purchasing power covers what crypto changes, and does not change, in that picture.
How analysts frame the possible outcomes
The Fed held rates in October and meets next on 9 December. The investingLive preview argues that a 0.3% core reading would revive hawkish pricing for December and likely lift Treasury yields and the dollar, while 0.2% or softer would support the case for a pause. An in-line number, in its reading, would leave inflation above target without ruling out more tightening.
In crypto, the analysts quoted by CoinDesk tie the reaction to price levels rather than to the print alone. Bitget Wallet’s analysts wrote: “Hotter readings could reinforce December rate-hike expectations, while softer core inflation could trigger a relief rally.” They named $73,000 to $74,000 as key support, said a decisive break below $73,000 could expose $68,000, and said reclaiming and holding $80,000 would point to stronger demand.
BRN was blunter: “Bitcoin needs real buying, not a lucky break.” Its analysts said a daily close (UTC) below $73,000 could bring selling towards $70,000, with July’s lows below $60,000 as a deeper level. These are their scenarios, not Coindaro forecasts, and none of them says which way the data will come out.
What is still unknown this morning
Monday’s spot bitcoin ETF flows had not appeared on the public trackers at 06:00 UTC. The last confirmed day is Friday 6 November, when the funds lost $411.9 million, closing a week of $1.28 billion in net outflows. Farside usually posts Monday’s figures on Tuesday morning US time.
No cause for the 03:00 UTC dip has been reported, and Rain has not given the hour of its unlock. Among smaller tokens, RITUAL was up 41.43% over 24 hours at 05:43 UTC and PIEVERSE 30.34%, with no reported reason for either move. Waller’s remarks, if he addresses inflation or the December meeting, could change the tone before the data does.
The rest of the week after the CPI print
Wednesday 11 November is Veterans Day in the United States: the bond market is closed and the Fed has no events. Michael Barr, a Fed governor, speaks on AI and inequality on Thursday at 15:00 UTC. Friday 13 November is the busy day: the Deribit weekly expiry at 08:00 UTC, US producer prices at 13:30 UTC, Bowman again at 15:50 UTC, Philip Jefferson in the evening, and bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment, which Coindaro estimated on Sunday at about a 4.8% drop.
Next week brings the FOMC minutes and the TRUMP token unlock on 18 November, the ZRO unlock on 20 November and the PCE inflation index on 25 November. For today, the order is fixed: Waller at 09:00 UTC, CPI at 13:30 UTC, Bowman at 20:30 UTC.