Wall Street jumped 2%, bitcoin did not: what can move crypto before CPI

Bitcoin price today stayed where the morning left it while Wall Street was having a strong Monday. At 17:42 UTC on 9 November bitcoin traded at $74,475 on Coinbase, 1.7% below its level at Friday’s US close, while the S&P 500 stood 2.3% higher and the Nasdaq Composite 2.6% higher at 17:41 UTC, according to Yahoo Finance data. Oil fell and the Cboe volatility index (VIX) dropped by a fifth. Crypto did not join in.

The US cash session runs from 14:30 to 21:00 UTC since American clocks changed on 1 November, so this analysis is written with the session still open: every price below is an intraday reading with its time, not a close. Spot ETF flows for Monday do not exist yet either. Farside and SoSoValue publish them after the close.

The drop itself happened before New York opened, in the Sunday night liquidation cascade told in our report on the five-minute fall to $73,477, and the weekend set-up is in Sunday’s week-ahead analysis. This piece starts at the opening bell and asks one question: why did a risk-on day on Wall Street leave crypto flat, and which levels and dates would change that?

Stocks up 2.3% since Friday, bitcoin down 1.7%

Measured from Friday’s US close (21:00 UTC on 6 November) to Monday evening, the gap between the two markets is wide. Every crypto figure below comes from Coinbase public candles and tickers; the stock, oil, dollar and yield figures come from Yahoo Finance chart data, whose own time stamps we keep, since some of those feeds lag by a few minutes.

CNBC’s live blog, updated at 12:33 p.m. New York time (17:33 UTC), had the Dow up 1,001 points, or 2%, the S&P 500 up 2.4% and the Nasdaq up 2.7%, and put the move down to lower oil and a rebound in technology shares after last week’s swings. Chip stocks recovered part of Thursday’s AI-driven sell-off. Yahoo’s readings eight minutes later were a touch lower, which is the normal noise of an open session.

The wider crypto market looked like bitcoin, only weaker. Our market snapshot at 17:27 UTC showed a total crypto market value of $2.51 trillion, down 3.11% in 24 hours, bitcoin dominance at 59.6% and the Crypto Fear & Greed index at 29, in the fear zone. XRP had lost 5.3% in 24 hours and 11.8% in seven days. For readers in the euro area, bitcoin traded at €66,484 on Coinbase’s BTC-EUR book at 17:42 UTC.

Inside the cash session: a $1,247 range and no follow-through

From the opening bell, bitcoin did nothing that a stock trader would call a move. The 14:30 UTC minute on Coinbase opened at $74,520.18. The session low came nine minutes later, $74,229.77 at 14:39 UTC; the high was $75,476.98 at 15:46 UTC, when the Nasdaq was still building its gains. At 17:42 UTC it stood at $74,475, about $45 below its opening level. The whole range so far is $1,247, about 1.7%, on roughly 2,200 BTC of Coinbase volume.

Ether followed the same path at a smaller scale: $2,119.38 at the open, a low of $2,111.61 at 14:31 UTC, a high of $2,149.19 at 15:47 UTC and $2,116.46 at 17:42 UTC. Solana opened the session at $86.91 and stood at $86.20 at the same minute. The best hour for all three was 15:00 to 16:00 UTC, when bitcoin closed at $75,431; the next hour gave most of it back.

Put plainly, the US session has done almost nothing to crypto so far. The two other numbers that usually show American selling pressure were quiet too. Coinbase’s BTC-USD price sat about $90 to $110 below the dollar-stablecoin pairs on Binance and Coinbase at 17:36-17:37 UTC, a gap of 0.12-0.15% that is normal on an ordinary day. And the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) traded at $42.16 at 17:41 UTC, 1.7% below Friday’s close, in line with the coin itself rather than below it.

Oil and Nvidia moved stocks, and neither reached crypto

The day’s macro story came from the Middle East. Oil fell on hopes of a diplomatic end to the Iran war, according to a 14:40 UTC market report by Journal Arta that had Brent down 5.02% to $93.38 and WTI down 4.36% at the open. Overnight, CoinDesk had reported Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling Iran’s demands “outrageous” and the talks stalled, and noted that bitcoin has more often than not declined during oil rallies since the war began in March. On Monday oil fell and stocks rose, but the reverse did not hold for bitcoin: cheaper oil did not lift it.

The second story was Nvidia. Its board opened an independent investigation into reports about chief executive Jensen Huang’s relationship with a businesswoman whom US intelligence agencies believe passed information to Beijing, CNBC reported; China’s foreign ministry denied the allegations, according to Cointelegraph. Nvidia traded at $177.97 at 17:41 UTC, 4.6% below Friday’s close, on a day when the Nasdaq rose 2.6%. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co called it “a black eye moment for Jensen” in a Sunday note quoted by CNBC.

That matters for crypto only through correlation. PrimeXBT Research, in a note carried by FXStreet at 13:09 UTC, put the 30-day correlation between the Nasdaq and bitcoin at 0.80. That is one vendor’s number, but it fits Thursday 5 November, when the Nasdaq fell 5.5% and bitcoin lost 5.5% over the UTC day on Coinbase. On Monday the link broke on the upside.

Yields and the Fed did not give crypto a reason either

Bond markets were not much help. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.86%, according to the Treasury’s daily yield curve, and Yahoo’s reading of the CBOE 10-year index was 4.88% at 17:26 UTC, slightly higher on the day. Futures still price a rate rise in December as the likely outcome: CME FedWatch showed odds near 79-80% for a 25 basis point hike, according to Cointelegraph and FXStreet, up from 72.8% before Friday’s jobs report, which showed 165,000 new payrolls in October. The Fed decides on 9 December.

Chris Senyek of Wolfe Research wrote in a Monday note cited by CNBC that “markets are likely to remain very news flow driven”. Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors was blunter about Monday’s bounce: “it’s not like the coast is clear”, he said, according to CNBC. Neither was talking about crypto. Both describe a market that bought a headline rather than a change in rates.

Bitcoin ETF outflows: $1.28 billion left in the first week of November

The cleaner explanation for crypto’s flat day sits in last week’s fund data. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $1,281.7 million between 2 and 6 November, according to Farside Investors’ daily table, the figure SoSoValue also reports as the largest weekly withdrawal since late June. Only Wednesday brought money in. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $1,209.5 million of the week’s outflow on its own, while Fidelity’s FBTC took in a net $93.1 million.

Friday’s $411.9 million outflow is the latest complete day: IBIT lost $403.0 million, Bitwise’s BITB $20.5 million, ARK’s ARKB $20.1 million and Grayscale’s GBTC $11.1 million, against $42.8 million into FBTC. Ether funds lost $93.3 million the same day, almost all of it from BlackRock’s ETHA. Solana ETFs, a smaller market, lost $24.2 million on Friday after four days with almost no flow. The trading prices on Monday showed no change of mood: ETHA traded at $47.85 at 17:41 UTC, down 4.9%, about as much as ether itself. Our guide to how spot bitcoin ETFs and their flows work explains why a fund’s share price and its flows are two different things.

The week in context is in Friday’s analysis of the US week; the point here is narrower. When stocks rallied on Monday, the main channel through which American money reaches bitcoin had just spent five sessions pushing the other way, and the first figure for Monday will only arrive after 21:00 UTC.

Stablecoins shrank another $4.5 billion in a week

The second channel, dollars parked on-chain, kept shrinking through the stock rally. DefiLlama’s count of dollar-pegged stablecoins stood at $294.25 billion at 17:41 UTC, flat on the day but $4.5 billion (1.5%) below a week earlier and $12.7 billion (4.1%) below a month earlier. Tether’s USDT stood at $176.69 billion, $2.58 billion lower in a week; Circle’s USDC at $70.32 billion, down $0.34 billion on the day and $1.32 billion on the week. Ethena’s USDe was the exception, up $0.45 billion in a week to $4.98 billion.

Nobody has published a cause for the drain. What the numbers do show is that the stock rally did not bring fresh dollars into crypto by Monday evening, at least not in a form DefiLlama can count.

Derivatives after the flush: leverage rebuilt, options stayed calm

The Sunday night flush brought about $1.16 billion of crypto liquidations in 24 hours, mostly longs, CoinDesk reported at 11:42 UTC. It did not clear out much open interest. Binance’s BTCUSDT funding payment between longs and shorts, settled every few hours, keeps the contract price close to the spot or index price.">perpetual contract had 97,363 BTC of open interest at 17:40 UTC, about $7.26 billion by Binance’s own valuation, against 95,581 BTC at 00:00 UTC on Monday, a rise of about 1.9% in under 18 hours. Traders opened new positions as the price rebuilt from its low.

They did not pay up to do it. Binance’s last funding settlement, at 16:00 UTC, was 0.0100%, the default level that signals neither crowded longs nor crowded shorts; the next one is at 00:00 UTC. The long/short account ratio was 2.76 for the 17:00 UTC hour, meaning 73.4% of accounts held net long positions. That is a count of accounts, not of money, and it says nothing about size. Ether funding turned negative on Monday morning, -0.0083% at 00:00 UTC, and was back at +0.0026% by the 16:00 UTC settlement.

Options tell the same story of a market waiting. Deribit’s 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) read 40.05 at 15:00 and 16:00 UTC and about 40.1 in the 17:00 UTC hour, below the 40.66 of Sunday afternoon. In other words, the options market priced no stock-led move in either direction during the cash session. CoinDesk reported at 11:42 UTC that one-week implied volatility had jumped to about 43% from about 33% on Thursday, and that four of bitcoin’s six most-traded contracts were puts at $70,000 to $72,000.

Friday’s weekly expiry on Deribit, at 08:00 UTC on 13 November, holds 32,932 BTC of open interest: 12,285 BTC in puts and 20,647 BTC in calls, a put/call ratio of 0.59, by Coindaro’s reading of Deribit’s public book at 17:47 UTC. The biggest put positions sit at $72,000 (2,190 BTC), $74,000 (2,158 BTC) and $68,000 (1,963 BTC). By our own calculation the max pain level for that expiry is now $77,000, down from $78,000 on Sunday. The month-end expiry on 27 November is larger, 77,328 BTC with a put/call ratio of 0.90. Open interest does not show who bought and who sold, so none of these figures is a bet on direction by itself.

Futures pricing was flat too. Deribit’s December 2026 contract traded 0.69% above the index at 17:33 UTC, about 5.5% a year, close to Sunday’s 5.6%.

Crypto stocks: miners rose with chips, MSTR and the ETFs fell

US-listed crypto shares split along a line that has little to do with bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin miners, many of which now rent out their power and buildings for AI computing, traded with the chip rebound. Companies that hold or track bitcoin traded with bitcoin.

VanEck argued in a note reported by CoinDesk on 5 November that miners were oversold after a 35% rout in October; Monday’s bounce came alongside AMD, which Journal Arta had up 11% at the open. Coinbase also had its own news today: its national trust bank won final approval from the OCC. Strategy’s 8-K, filed today, shows 1,036 BTC bought between 2 and 8 November, holdings of 850,364 BTC at an average cost of $75,456 (above Monday’s price) and $188.3 million spent buying back its STRC preferred shares, a filing we cover in a separate piece this evening.

More company news comes after the bell. MARA, Exodus, Trump Media, BitGo and HIVE Digital report results after Monday’s close, according to CoinDesk’s week-ahead calendar, and CoreWeave, a bellwether for AI computing, reports after Tuesday’s close. For miners that now trade as AI plays, that report may count for more than bitcoin’s price.

What would change the picture: levels and Tuesday’s CPI stack

The question for the rest of the week is whether crypto keeps ignoring good news from stocks, or catches up with it. Two things would answer it: price levels that traders and on-chain analysts are watching, and a dense run of US data starting Tuesday morning. What follows is Coindaro’s reading of where those lines sit, built only from the figures named; it is not a forecast.

The lines above: $75,200 to $77,600

Bitcoin is trading under a cluster of averages and cost bases between $75,000 and $76,000. The 50-week simple moving average sits at about $75,000-75,500 depending on the source: FXStreet gives $75,222 and Cointelegraph $75,492. CryptoQuant puts the short-term holder cost basis, the average price paid for coins that moved in the last 155 days, at $75,691. Bitcoin touched $75,477 at 15:46 UTC and turned back right under it.

Above that come the 200-day exponential average near $76,458 (FXStreet), the 100-day simple average near $77,430 (CoinDesk) and the cost basis of coins last moved one to three months ago, about $79,300 according to a CryptoQuant community analyst. That analyst wrote on Monday: “In 2026, price stayed below this line for months at a time (Feb–Apr, Jun–Aug) before reclaiming it.” A sustained move back above $75,700, with ETF flows turning positive, would be the first sign that the stock rally is reaching crypto.

The lines below: $73,150, $72,500 and the $70,000 puts

Under the price, the 200-day simple average is near $73,150 (CoinDesk), close to Sunday night’s low of $73,477 and Monday’s Coinbase low of $73,636 in the 08:00 UTC hour. PrimeXBT Research names $72,500, the halfway point of the $57,700-$87,300 range, then $70,000, the strike where options traders have concentrated their put buying. The 200-week simple average is near $68,031 according to FXStreet. Trader Rekt Capital wrote on X on Sunday that “Seller Exhaustion tends to happen exactly at or very close to a Bitcoin price bottom”, a pattern claim, not a level.

Tuesday’s CPI and the rest of the week, hour by hour

The data comes in a tight stack. Consensus for October consumer prices is +0.2% month on month, according to FactSet figures cited by CoinDesk, after +0.6% in September; RBC Economics expects +0.3% and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast stood at +0.24% on 6 November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it will not publish 12-month changes for indexes that lack October 2025 data because of last year’s shutdown, as explained in its CPI shutdown FAQ, so the monthly figure is the one to read. Oil rose about 15% in October, which leaves room for an upside surprise.

The Fed’s own November calendar lists the speeches; the auctions come from the Treasury. Paris time is UTC+1, so CPI lands at 14:30 in France and Italy.

Read together, the up case would need a monthly CPI at or below 0.2-0.3%, stocks holding Monday’s gains with oil under $90 a barrel, and bitcoin back above $75,700 with ETF money returning. The down case would be a hot print, a weak 10-year auction pushing yields above Friday’s 4.86%, a reversal in the Nasdaq after Nvidia or CoreWeave, or oil back above $90, with $73,150, $72,500 and $70,000 as the lines to watch. So far on Monday, good news for stocks has not been enough on its own; whether bad news would still hit both is untested.

What is still missing tonight

Several numbers will only be known after this piece: the US close at 21:00 UTC, Monday’s ETF flows (usually on Farside on Tuesday morning), the Treasury’s official Monday yields and any liquidation figures for the session itself. The 10-year reading above is an intraday print, and so are the index levels. The next fixed point is Tuesday at 13:30 UTC.