RAIN token unlock on 10 November 2026: 37.2 billion RAIN in a monthly tranche, at an hour Rain has not published

The next RAIN token unlock falls on 10 November 2026: 37,234,218,954 RAIN, or 3.2% of the 1.15 trillion total supply, according to the tokenomics.com unlock schedule read on 7 November. Rain runs prediction markets on Arbitrum. No Rain page we could read gives the hour of the release, so we list the whole day, from 00:00 to 23:59 UTC.

It is the largest scheduled release of the fortnight on the trackers we follow. It also looks like a monthly slice of linear vesting rather than a one-off cliff: its size matches, almost to the token, the monthly instalments of five allocations in the tracker’s own vesting table (our calculation, below).

Value of the RAIN token unlock: USD 218.8 million on one tracker, more than USD 300 million on another

Tokenomics.com values the tranche at USD 218.8 million, or 4.9% of RAIN’s market capitalisation. Tokenomist ranks RAIN third among the November unlocks worth more than USD 300 million in its monthly outlook, but the figures sit behind its paid tier and we could not check them. The token count does not change from one tracker to the next. The price each one uses, and the moment it reads it, does.

At 09:17 UTC on 7 November, RAIN traded near USD 0.005764, down 4.55% over 24 hours and 7.65% over seven days, according to CoinGecko data. Tokenomist counted 714.41 billion RAIN in circulation that day, so the tranche equals about 5.2% of the circulating supply (our calculation). CoinGecko’s page showed about USD 11.9 million of trading over 24 hours. At the tokenomics.com value, the release equals some 18 days of trading at that pace.

Who receives the tokens: five monthly instalments that add up to 37.2 billion

Tokenomics.com splits the 10 November tranche by recipient type: 34.8% to private investors, 34.5% to the community, 29.0% to insiders and 1.7% to the public. Its calendar entry rounds the same split to 35%, 35%, 29% and 2%. The tracker does not name the allocations behind these shares, and we found no team statement on the unlock.

Its vesting table, counted from the token launch on 10 September 2025:

Those terms account for the whole tranche. Five allocations were still vesting month by month in November: the Strategic Sale (about 12.94 billion RAIN a month), Marketing and Development (12.85 billion), Contributors, Advisors and Partners (6.01 billion), the Team (4.79 billion) and the Presale (0.64 billion). They add up to 37.23 billion RAIN, and their weights match the tracker’s recipient split within rounding, with the Strategic Sale as the private-investor slice. This is our arithmetic on the tracker’s table. Rain has not published it.

The tracker lists releases on the 10th of each month until 10 September 2027, with 11 of 25 events left and 65.8% of the supply already unlocked. It shows 37.2 billion RAIN again on 10 December, then 24.3 billion on 10 January and on 10 February 2027, a drop that fits the end of the Strategic Sale’s vesting. The biggest block still waiting is the Reserve and Treasury, 20% of supply, whose 18-month cliff runs to March 2027 before six months of linear release (our reading of the table). Rain has confirmed none of these dates.

Other trackers do not use the same labels. Tokenomist says Rain “has no upcoming cliff unlock” and puts 32.48% of the supply still locked, although one of its own FAQ answers speaks of a cliff mechanism and another of linear vesting. Crypto Briefing described the June release as a cliff of about 4.4% of the total supply, worth USD 650 million to USD 713 million depending on the tracker. Nothing we read shows how each past month was released onchain.

A token unlock adds supply that holders are free to move or sell. It does not mean they will sell, and a project’s tokenomics are only part of the picture.

What Rain is, according to its Blockworks filing

According to the project’s disclosure on Blockworks (Token Transparency filing), Rain is a decentralised prediction-market protocol on Arbitrum that also accepts deposits from Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base and Bitcoin. Builders can launch their own forecasting platforms on it, and users create, fund and trade markets on outcomes. The filing says Rain’s whitepaper classes RAIN as a governance token, that contributors are rewarded in RAIN and that 2.5% of market trading volume pays for buybacks and burns. One detail cuts the other way: 10% of the burned tokens are minted again for the Rain Foundation.

What the token is for is disputed. A token overview quoted in the filing says holding RAIN is required for “Trading Power”; DAO materials and the whitepaper say it is not needed to use the app, trade, deposit or create markets.

Governance sits with the Rain Foundation, a Panamanian foundation, until DAO voting is fully active, according to the whitepaper. Upgrades and treasury moves go through a Foundation-controlled multisig whose signers and threshold are not disclosed, while help-centre pages say holders already submit and vote on proposals. The filing reports a first DAO-executed vote on 29 July 2026: the Foundation committed USD 23 million in USDT to buy and burn locked Credit Refund allocations at USD 0.0031 per token, and the Foundation, team wallets and team vesting allocations abstained.

New to the sector? See our guide to how prediction markets work. In the United States the sector is under pressure: the CFTC has just given prediction markets 30 days to unblock states that courts had ordered them to block.

October’s USD 785.5 million tranche and the price since

The October release drew attention. Crypto Briefing reported that October’s seven largest unlocks totalled USD 1.08 billion, with RAIN at USD 785.5 million, nearly three-quarters of the sum. It gave no token amount and no day, and it did not say which tracker supplied the figure.

The price has fallen since. Cryptoticker put RAIN at USD 0.0103 on the evening of 2 October, down 14.5% in 24 hours and 38.3% in 30 days, about 47% below its 25 August peak of USD 0.019464. It estimated the October release at about 45 times a day of trading. Tokenomics.com shows a worst drop of 21.3% in the 14 days after the October tranche, without linking the two. From 2 October to 7 November, RAIN lost about 44%.

Since no source gives October’s token count, the gap between USD 785.5 million then and USD 218.8 million now cannot be split cleanly between the lower price and a smaller tranche.

Where RAIN trades and what European readers should know

Spot trading in RAIN/USDT opened on KuCoin at 10:00 UTC on 6 January 2026, according to the exchange’s announcement. On 7 November CoinGecko named BingX as the busiest RAIN/USDT venue, and its markets table also listed HTX, BloFin, Uniswap V3 on Arbitrum, Toobit and WhiteBIT. We found no listing on Binance, Bybit, Bitget or Gate.

Midnight UTC on 10 November is 01:00 in Paris, Rome and Brussels, but the release time itself is not published. We found nothing specific to RAIN under the EU’s MiCA rules, and the token’s regulatory status in Europe is unknown.

What is still unknown

Three things are missing from Rain itself: the exact time, the allocations behind this tranche and any comment on it. Its whitepaper could not be read either. DefiLlama and CryptoRank pages for RAIN were unreachable. The next check is 10 November itself, on the trackers and onchain. This page is information, not investment advice.