Coinbase’s Q3 2026 earnings report, released on Thursday 29 October, shows net income of $718.7 million, but $715.0 million of that came from the higher value of the crypto the exchange holds as an investment, according to its earnings presentation and its quarterly report (10-Q), both filed with the SEC that day. On the company’s own adjusted measure, which leaves out those marks, the quarter earned $77.7 million. Total revenue was $1.22 billion, flat on the second quarter and 35% below a year earlier.
Diluted earnings came to $2.51 per share, where analysts had expected a loss of 15 cents, according to Zacks figures cited by Decrypt. Three months earlier the same company lost $359.5 million, when its crypto portfolio shed $209.5 million of value. Put the two quarters side by side and the portfolio swings explain most of the gap between a large loss and a large profit.
Underneath, the business barely moved. Spot trading volume fell 8% from the second quarter. The growth came from prediction markets, now above $200 million of annualized revenue, and from USDC, the stablecoin Coinbase earns interest income on, with a record $22 billion held on average in Coinbase products.
The results arrive four days after Bernstein cut its price target and forecast a loss for Coinbase in 2026, a call we covered in our report on the Bernstein note on crypto stocks. The operating figures fit Bernstein’s view of the business. The profit line, for now, does not. Figures are Coinbase’s unless another source is named; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell the shares.
Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings: what the $719 million is made of
Coinbase keeps a portfolio of crypto assets “held for investment”, worth $2,224.8 million at 30 September. The 10-Q says the quarter’s gain came “primarily” from remeasuring those assets at fair value, mainly bitcoin and ether. Under the accounting rules Coinbase applies, that remeasurement runs through the income statement every quarter, whether or not anything is sold.
This is not new, and it cuts both ways. In the third quarter of 2025 the same line added $423.9 million and net income was $432.6 million, so the 66% year-on-year rise in profit compares two quarters that were both lifted by marks. Over the first nine months of 2026, gains and losses on the portfolio net out to just $23.2 million, and the company shows a net loss of $34.9 million, or 13 cents a share.
Operating income, which sits above the investment line, was $61.7 million, against $480.5 million a year earlier, according to the 10-Q. Adjusted net income fell 82% year on year, from $420.7 million to $77.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA, another company measure, was $332.9 million: up 60% on the second quarter, down 58% on a year earlier, and positive for a 15th quarter in a row.
Costs are the part management controlled. Adjusted expenses were $975.0 million, below the $980 million to $1,080 million range Coinbase itself had guided, and 6% lower than in the second quarter. Total operating expenses were $1,153.9 million, including $233.0 million of stock-based compensation. Headcount stood at 4,204.
| Coinbase, $ million | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 1,215.6 | 1,220.1 | 1,868.7 |
| Net revenue | 1,160.5 | 1,154.3 | 1,762.9 |
| Transaction revenue | 590.2 | 599.2 | 1,046.3 |
| Subscription and services | 570.2 | 555.1 | 716.6 |
| Gains (losses) on crypto held for investment | 715.0 | -209.5 | 423.9 |
| Net income (loss) | 718.7 | -359.5 | 432.6 |
| Adjusted net income (loss) | 77.7 | -104.9 | 420.7 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 332.9 | 207.8 | 800.7 |
| Adjusted expenses | 975.0 | 1,034.8 | 1,088.5 |
Source: Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings presentation and 10-Q, filed 29 October 2026. Adjusted figures are company measures, not GAAP.
Revenue is flat because trading fees fell and subscriptions held
Transaction revenue, the fees Coinbase charges on trades, was $590.2 million, 1% lower than in the second quarter and 44% lower than a year earlier. Consumer trading brought in $450.1 million, roughly unchanged on the quarter. Institutional revenue fell 8% to $91.7 million. Decrypt reported that analysts had expected about $527 million of transaction revenue, so this line beat forecasts even as it shrank.
Subscription and services revenue rose 3% to $570.2 million and now makes up 49% of net revenue. Stablecoin revenue was the largest piece at $306.9 million. Blockchain rewards, the cut Coinbase keeps from staking on behalf of customers, brought $85.7 million, less than half the $184.6 million of a year earlier. Interest and finance fees added $68.6 million.
Corporate interest and other income, booked outside net revenue, fell 16% to $55.1 million. Paid subscribers to Coinbase One, the monthly membership, reached a record, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the presentation and Decrypt.
Spot volume fell 8% while derivatives lifted market share to 10.7%
Coinbase’s spot volume fell to $134.5 billion from $146.4 billion in the second quarter. Derivatives remain the bulk of activity at $963.0 billion. Across the whole crypto market, volume fell about 10% to $11 trillion, the company says, so Coinbase held up slightly better than its rivals.
| Trading volume, $ billion | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer spot | 23.4 | 25.8 |
| Institutional spot | 111.1 | 120.6 |
| Total spot | 134.5 | 146.4 |
| Crypto derivatives | 963.0 | 1,027.0 |
| Stablecoin | 93.5 | 92.7 |
| Total | 1,213.8 | 1,299.7 |
Coinbase’s share of global crypto trading volume reached 10.7%, against 10.3% in the second quarter and 5.6% a year earlier: a fourth quarterly gain in a row. The presentation notes that the definition was adjusted for stablecoin conversion activity on the platform, so the series is Coinbase’s own construction.
The derivatives business is being rebuilt as it grows. The integration of INTX, Coinbase’s international exchange, with Deribit, the options venue it bought, was completed in October, and the company expects “some near-term volatility in volumes” as traders adjust. A relaunch of Coinbase Pro, covering spot, futures, perpetuals, options and equities in one account, is planned for the fourth quarter.
Coinbase prediction markets revenue passes $200 million a year
Prediction markets, where users buy contracts on the outcome of elections, sports and economic events, generated more than $200 million of annualized revenue in the third quarter. Coinbase defines that figure as the most recent quarter’s revenue multiplied by four, which implies at least about $50 million in the quarter itself (our arithmetic). Revenue from the product has grown at an 82% compound rate per quarter since launch, and daily traders rose more than 60% on the second quarter, the presentation says.
On the earnings call, finance chief Alesia Haas said prediction markets and derivatives together account for about a quarter of transaction revenue, according to the Yahoo Finance and TheStreet live coverage. Coinbase also says users who trade predictions bring extra spot volume, and it plans event hubs, starting with the US midterm elections, plus links with its Coinbase One membership.
The 10-Q lists the “regulatory treatment” of prediction markets among the factors that could change its forecasts. How far this line can grow depends on rules Coinbase does not control.
USDC: a record $22 billion on Coinbase and $307 million of revenue
Coinbase earns most of its stablecoin revenue from its agreement with Circle, the issuer of USDC, which shares the interest earned on the reserves behind the token. Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $22 billion in the quarter, about 30% of the $73 billion average USDC market value. The presentation credits the full-quarter effect of a USDC balance from Hyperliquid that arrived in June. How the issuer’s side of the business works is in our page on Circle and how the USDC issuer makes money.
Stablecoin revenue rose 5% on the quarter to $306.9 million, but it was still 5% below the $324.5 million of a year earlier, as reclassified in the 10-Q. Adding the interest on stablecoins Coinbase holds on its own balance sheet, the total was $328 million, against $320 million in the second quarter. Over the past year, the company says, it captured about half of all USDC economics.
Rewards paid to users who hold USDC cost money too. For the fourth quarter, Coinbase cites marketing for USDC rewards among the reasons its adjusted expenses will rise. European readers have seen the other side of this push: in the European Economic Area, Coinbase is converting customers’ USDT into USDC, and USDC already had 56% of euro stablecoin trading according to Kaiko, as we reported in our piece on USDC overtaking USDT in Europe. For newcomers, our glossary explains what a stablecoin is and how it holds its peg.
Bernstein forecast a loss for 2026: what the quarter confirms and what it does not
On 26 October, Bernstein cut its Coinbase price target to $250 from $330 and moved its 2026 forecast from a profit of $5.97 per share to a loss of $2.60, according to The Block’s account of the note, which is for Bernstein’s clients and has not been published. The analysts expected third-quarter spot volume to stay flat at about $150 billion. “We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates,” they wrote, as quoted by The Block, and they named stablecoins as the biggest driver of revenue growth in the third quarter.
The operating side of the quarter fits that thesis. Spot volume came in at $134.5 billion, below the $150 billion Bernstein had pencilled in. Stablecoin revenue grew, and prediction markets, which Bernstein expects to bring about $2 billion a year with derivatives by 2028, kept compounding. Trading fees did not carry the quarter.
The headline profit does not fit, and it shows why the annual call is hard to judge. Coinbase has lost 13 cents a share in the first nine months. To end the year at minus $2.60, it would need a fourth-quarter loss of roughly $650 million. That is our arithmetic, not a Bernstein figure: minus $2.60 on about 264 million weighted shares comes to about $686 million for the year, less the $34.9 million already lost. That would take a sharp fall in crypto prices hitting the investment portfolio, as in the second quarter; nobody knows yet what prices will be on 31 December.
Two things are missing for a fair verdict. The Block’s report does not say whether Bernstein’s per-share loss includes the crypto marks, or which revenue line its $5.5 billion 2026 forecast refers to; Coinbase booked $3.85 billion of total revenue in the first nine months. And we found no Bernstein reaction to the results as of 05:55 UTC on Friday.
The shares closed at $160.59 on Thursday 29 October at 20:00 UTC, down 1.07% on the day, before the results, according to Yahoo Finance and TheStreet. That is about 55% below the 52-week high of $361.40, Decrypt noted, and well below Bernstein’s $250 target. For how the exchange itself works, its fees and its licences, see our Coinbase review.
Brian Armstrong 10b5-1 plan: up to 8.17 million shares from 16 November
The 10-Q also discloses that Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s chief executive and a director, adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan on 12 August 2026. It provides for the potential sale of up to 8,167,446 Class A shares that Armstrong owns upon the exercise of vested stock options. Sales can happen only if the share price meets threshold prices set in the plan, between an estimated start date of 16 November 2026 and 22 October 2027, or earlier if all trades are completed.
The Defiant put the plan at up to $1.31 billion. That figure is the outlet’s conversion, not a number in the filing: 8,167,446 shares multiplied by Thursday’s $160.59 close gives about $1.31 billion (our check). The 10-Q gives no dollar value and does not disclose the threshold prices, so the amount actually sold could be higher, lower or nothing at all. The shares equal about 3.1% of the 264.8 million Class A and Class B shares outstanding on 22 October (our arithmetic).
A 10b5-1 plan fixes in advance how many shares may be sold and under which conditions, so the sales can proceed later without a new decision by the insider while he may hold confidential information. Armstrong was not alone in the quarter. Director Fred Ehrsam, a co-founder, adopted a plan on 4 September covering up to 3,866,620 Class A shares from the conversion of Class B stock held by his living trust, from 7 December 2026 to 7 June 2027. President and chief operating officer Emilie Choi adopted one on 8 September for up to 1,560,453 shares, from 4 January 2027 to 31 December 2027.
The company itself was a buyer. Coinbase repurchased 10.2 million Class A shares in the third quarter and had $2.0 billion left under its buyback authorization, according to the presentation.
Q4 outlook: about $165 million of trading revenue in the first 25 days
For the fourth quarter, Coinbase says transaction revenue reached about $165 million from 1 to 25 October, and warns against extrapolating it. As a rough comparison only, that is about $6.6 million a day, against about $6.4 million a day in the third quarter (our arithmetic, not a company forecast).
Subscription and services revenue is guided at $550 million to $630 million, against $570 million in the third quarter. Adjusted expenses should be $1,007 million to $1,157 million, pushed up by higher average interest rates, quarter-to-date crypto prices and marketing for USDC rewards. Stock-based compensation should be about $240 million. For the full year, adjusted expenses are now expected at $4.15 billion to $4.30 billion, about $100 million lower at the midpoint than the previous range.
The crypto portfolio will again swing the reported profit. Around 05:24 UTC on Friday, the total value of the crypto market was 4.5% lower than 24 hours earlier and the Fear and Greed index stood at 30, according to Coindaro’s market data. The fourth-quarter mark will depend on where bitcoin and ether stand on 31 December.
The next dates on the calendar are 16 November, when Armstrong’s plan can start selling, and 7 December for Ehrsam’s. Coinbase has not yet announced the date of its fourth-quarter results.