ECB interest rate decision on 29 October 2026: what time, and where rates stand

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision for October is due on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 14:15 CET, which is 13:15 UTC. The Governing Council meets in Frankfurt on 28 and 29 October, and the press conference follows at 14:45 CET (13:45 UTC), streamed live on the ECB website. Going in, the deposit rate stands at 2.50% after two hikes this year, and euro-area inflation was 3.8% in September.

Nothing is decided until the press release goes out.

What time is the ECB rate decision?

The ECB’s weekly calendar lists two slots for Thursday 29 October: “Publication of the monetary policy decisions” at 14:15 CET and the press conference at 14:45 CET. Summer time in the European Union ends on Sunday 25 October, so on the day of the meeting Frankfurt, Paris and Rome are all on CET, one hour ahead of UTC. Readers in France and Italy see the decision at 14:15 on their own clocks; in New York it is 09:15.

The first day, Wednesday 28 October, is a closed session of the Governing Council, and the ECB’s meeting calendar gives it no public time. The second day is closed too, until the decision is published. The ECB does not say when the press conference ends; the end time shown on this page is our estimate of one hour.

What the ECB decided in September and where rates stand

At its previous meeting, on 10 September 2026, the Governing Council raised the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. That meeting was held in Berlin rather than in Frankfurt. Since 16 September the key ECB interest rates have been 2.50% for the deposit facility, 2.65% for the main refinancing operations and 2.90% for the marginal lending facility.

September was the second hike of 2026. The first was decided on 11 June and took effect on 17 June, lifting the deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.25%; reports at the time described it as the first rise since 2023. In between, on 23 July, the ECB left rates unchanged. The ECB tied the June move to inflation pressure from the war in the Middle East.

The turn is recent. Through the first half of 2025 the ECB was cutting, and the deposit rate sat at 2.00% for a year before June 2026.

The account of the September meeting, published on 8 October, shows markets had fully priced that hike, and 84 basis points of increases in all by the end of 2027, against 64 at the July meeting. The median answer in the ECB’s own Survey of Monetary Analysts saw September as the final hike. Chief economist Philip Lane proposed the 25 basis point rise.

Inflation at 3.8%, with energy up 18.9%

The latest figure on the table is euro-area inflation of 3.8% in September 2026. Eurostat published it as a flash estimate on 2 October and confirmed it on 16 October. August was 3.2%. A year earlier, in September 2025, the rate was 2.2%.

Energy did most of the climbing. Energy prices were 18.9% higher than a year before in Eurostat’s final data (the flash had said 18.8%), up from 14.3% in August, and energy alone added 1.71 percentage points to the headline rate. Services inflation was 3.2% (3.0% in August), food, alcohol and tobacco 1.3%, and non-energy industrial goods 1.1%. Italy was above the average at 4.2%, from 3.2% the month before.

ECB staff published their latest projections with the September decision: headline inflation of 3.0% for 2026, 2.5% for 2027 and 2.1% for 2028, against a 2% target. There are no new projections at the October meeting, since the ECB updates them four times a year. Eurostat’s flash estimate for October inflation is scheduled for 4 November, after the decision, so the Governing Council meets with the September figure as the latest. Our guide to inflation and purchasing power explains what those percentages mean for savings.

What a Reuters poll of 73 economists showed on 8 October

A Reuters poll of 73 economists, taken from 5 to 8 October 2026 and republished by Global Banking & Finance Review, found all but three expecting the deposit rate to stay at 2.50% on 29 October. Sixty-four expected a 25 basis point hike at the following meeting, which closes on 17 December.

On the peak, 40 of 70 respondents put it at 2.75%. Twenty-four saw the rate reaching 3.00%, against two in the September poll. The same economists forecast inflation averaging 3.7% in the fourth quarter and 3.0% for 2026 as a whole.

Frankfurt gives no guidance on the outcome. “We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path,” its September statement said, adding that it decides meeting by meeting, depending on the data. The poll was three weeks old on the day of the meeting, and Coindaro found no more recent market pricing when this page was written on 25 October.

How to follow the decision live

Nothing is open to the public in Frankfurt. The decision appears as a press release on ecb.europa.eu at 14:15 CET. Half an hour later the ECB’s press conference page carries the video webcast, plus a low-latency audio stream. The monetary policy statement and the questions and answers are published as text the same day.

No speakers are named in the ECB calendar for 29 October. At the September press conference the statement was read by President Christine Lagarde, sitting with Vice-President Boris Vujčić.

The week around the meeting is busy, according to the weekly calendar. The bank lending survey and monetary data come out on Tuesday 27 October at 10:00 CET, and that evening Lagarde and the Governing Council hold an informal dinner in Frankfurt with EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič. Balance of payments data follow on Wednesday 28 October at 10:00 CET.

Why crypto readers in Europe watch the ECB

Interest rates in euros are set in Frankfurt. They pass through to what banks pay on savings and charge on loans across the euro area, which is the background against which European investors weigh any asset, crypto included. Our explainer on fiat money and central banks covers how that transmission works.

The link is more direct for euro stablecoins, whose issuers hold reserves in a currency whose short-term yields follow ECB policy. OKX has put euros and EURC in one order book for users in the European Economic Area, and Qivalis, a venture of European banks, has announced its own euro stablecoin. The US Federal Reserve meets on 27 and 28 October, so the two central banks behind the dollar and the euro decide within a day of each other.

Coindaro makes no call on how bitcoin or any other crypto asset will react. Past rate decisions have not given a reliable pattern to lean on.

The digital euro in the background

No digital euro decision is announced for this meeting; the ECB does not publish an agenda. The topic is still on the Governing Council’s mind. Its September statement asked lawmakers to agree on the single currency package quickly, “as the process for agreeing on the legal framework for the digital euro moves into its final stage”.

In a statement to the IMF’s policy committee on 17 October, Lagarde said the ECB will run a 12-month internal pilot in the second half of 2027, and that adopting the regulation by the end of 2026 is key to that plan. Our report on Lagarde’s digital euro timetable has the details.

What is not known before 29 October

The decision itself and how the Governing Council voted stay unknown until 14:15 CET on 29 October. So do the names of the press-conference speakers and the conference’s end time.

The dates that follow are fixed. Eurostat’s October inflation flash is due on 4 November, and the last ECB monetary policy meeting of 2026 is set for 16 and 17 December in Frankfurt, with new staff projections.