Bitcoin’s CPI week starts from a $700 weekend and $6 billion fewer stablecoins

Bitcoin goes into its CPI week almost exactly where the weekend started. A Coinbase one-minute candle closed at $75,668.73 at 17:44 UTC on Sunday 8 November, 0.08% below the $75,731.05 at which Saturday opened, and Sunday never left the $699.55 band that Saturday drew. The dollar side of the market did move: the stablecoin supply tracked by DefiLlama stood at $292.35 billion at 00:00 UTC on Sunday, $6.0 billion lower than a week earlier, after falling on 14 of the last 16 days. Then Tuesday 10 November packs four scheduled US events into eleven and a half hours, from a Fed governor’s speech at 09:00 UTC to the Vice Chair for Supervision’s at 20:30 UTC, with October’s consumer price index and a $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction in between.

The question here is what the weekend changed before Wall Street returns, and which outcomes this week would change the picture, with the name of whoever sets each threshold. Last week’s session-by-session split, the $1.28 billion of ETF outflows and the reason CPI comes without a yearly rate are in our analysis of bitcoin’s US week and the ETF outflows; Saturday’s narrow range and the Fed calendar are in this morning’s bitcoin price report on the $700 Saturday. Nothing here is investment advice.

Sunday stayed inside Saturday’s $700 band, on the thinnest volume of the last three Sundays

Coinbase’s BTC-USD candles give the shape of the day. Sunday opened at $75,753.95, made its low of $75,545.34 in the 02:00 UTC hour and its high of $76,094.99 in the 13:00 UTC hour, a range of $549.65. Saturday’s high of $76,152.43 and low of $75,452.88 both held, so the weekend range is still $699.55, or 0.92% of the price.

The one move worth naming came in the afternoon. After the 15:00 UTC hour closed at $75,966.27, the 16:00 UTC hour ended at $75,678.80, about $288 lower, on 113.8 BTC, the heaviest hour of the afternoon. No news explains it. Friday’s low of $74,722, printed at 15:05 UTC, was never approached; the weekend’s lowest print sits $731 above it.

Volume says more than the price. The table compares the same stretch, 00:00 to 17:44 UTC, on three Sundays, and sets it against Saturday and the average weekday of the US week just ended. The figures are Coinbase BTC-USD only, not the whole market.

A week earlier, the same Sunday hours traded about 63% more. This Sunday’s eighteen hours come to roughly 11% of an average weekday last week. On a book that thin, a weekend move is made with small orders and can be undone just as cheaply once US desks and ETF creation baskets return on Monday. That describes liquidity, not direction.

The rest of the market slipped while bitcoin held

Bitcoin was the steadiest of the large coins. From Saturday’s 00:00 UTC open to the 17:44 UTC one-minute candle on Sunday, Coinbase had ether going from $2,235.20 to $2,227.44 (-0.35%), Solana from $90.02 to $88.99 (-1.14%) and XRP from $1.1776 to $1.1538 (-2.02%). Coindaro’s market snapshot at 17:40 UTC put total crypto capitalisation at $2.52 trillion, against $2.56 trillion in the 05:38 UTC snapshot used this morning, while bitcoin’s dominance rose from 59.3% to 60.0%: the losses sat outside bitcoin. RAIN, whose monthly unlock falls due on Tuesday, was among the biggest 24-hour losers at about -6%; nothing published links the two.

XRP is the oddity. It was the weakest of the four, yet its Coinbase volume from 00:00 to 17:44 UTC on Sunday reached 22.7 million XRP, against 12.5 million in the same hours a week earlier and already more than the whole of Sunday 1 November (19.6 million). Bitcoin and ether traded less than a week earlier. No news explains the gap.

Leverage: Thursday’s flush was rebuilt within a day, and the weekend left it alone

Last week’s forced selling shows in the open interest on Binance’s BTCUSDT perpetual, in the exchange’s public four-hour data. It fell from 96,611 BTC at 12:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November to 91,617 BTC four hours later: about 5,000 BTC, or 5.2%, gone in one bar, its value dropping from $7.77 billion to $6.96 billion. By 16:00 UTC on Friday it was back at 96,312 BTC. Since 20:00 UTC on Friday every bar has sat between 95,625 and 96,616 BTC, a band of about 1%, and at 16:00 UTC on Sunday the figure was 96,072 BTC, worth $7.31 billion.

Put simply, about 4,500 BTC of new positions replaced the ones liquidated on Thursday, opened while bitcoin traded close to today’s level, and nobody added or cut leverage in size over the weekend.

Funding shows little appetite either. After Saturday’s two prints of 0.0013%, Binance’s three Sunday settlements came in at 0.0053% (00:00 UTC), 0.0072% (08:00) and 0.0034% (16:00), all under the 0.0100% default that applies when the perpetual trades in line with the index. At 0.0034% every eight hours, a long pays about 3.7% a year. Bybit’s BTCUSDT printed 0.0086% at 16:00 UTC. Binance’s long-to-short account ratio was 3.04 at that hour, so about 75% of accounts held a net long; the ratio counts accounts, not money.

Liquidations shrank with it. CoinGlass’s aggregated page showed $72.74 million liquidated across exchanges in the 24 hours to about 17:37 UTC, 67.4% of it long positions, against $1.05 billion in the 24 hours into Friday that Decrypt reported from the same provider. The weekend figure is about 7% of Friday’s, and it is an aggregator’s estimate, not exchange data.

Options: a weekly expiry pulled toward $78,000, with bets on both wings

Deribit’s public book, read at 17:34 UTC, shows 33,357 BTC of options expiring at 08:00 UTC on Friday 13 November, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.68. Max pain for that expiry, the strike at which option buyers as a group would lose the most, comes out at $78,000 in Coindaro’s calculation from open interest by strike; Deribit does not publish the figure, and our max pain explainer covers why it describes positioning rather than a price target. The largest lines are calls at $81,000 (8,160 BTC) and $84,000 (5,277 BTC), and puts at $74,000 (4,192 BTC) and $72,000 (2,178 BTC). Open interest does not show who bought and who sold, so the book cannot say whether traders are betting on a jump or selling premium against one.

Two other readings point to calm. Deribit’s DVOL index of 30-day implied volatility was 40.66 at 17:00 UTC on Sunday, after a high of 42.27 late on Thursday in six-hourly readings since Tuesday. Scaled by the square root of time, which is a convention and not a forecast, 40.66 gives a one-standard-deviation band of about 4.6% over the four and a half days to Friday’s expiry, roughly $72,200 to $79,100 around the 17:44 UTC price. The futures curve is flat too: on Coindaro’s arithmetic from Deribit’s marks, the December, March and June contracts all carry an annualised premium of about 5.6% over the index, with no backwardation of the kind that appears when traders pay up for protection.

Stablecoin supply has fallen on 14 of the last 16 days

DefiLlama’s total for dollar stablecoins, taken from its stablecoin dashboard series at 00:00 UTC each day, peaked at $315.54 billion on 17 May 2026. Since 23 October it has gone down on every day but two.

That is $10.9 billion (3.6%) gone since 23 October, $6.0 billion (2.0%) in the week to Sunday and $23.2 billion (7.3%) since the May peak. Sunday’s reading is the first flat day since 28 October. One day is not a turn, and Sunday readings may be quiet for the plain reason that US banks are closed.

DefiLlama’s live endpoint, read at 17:52 UTC with a slightly different cut-off, shows where the week’s drop came from. Tether’s USDT stood at $176.76 billion, $2.80 billion lower than a week earlier, and Circle’s USDC at $70.56 billion, down $1.30 billion. Sky’s USDS lost $0.75 billion, the move behind our report on the $893 million one-day fall in USDS, and World Liberty’s USD1 lost $0.46 billion. A few grew: Ethena’s USDe added $0.44 billion and Ripple’s RLUSD $0.27 billion.

Why the supply is falling is not established. A shrinking total can mean holders redeeming dollars at the issuer, an exchange or fund cutting its float, or wallet.">decentralised finance positions being unwound, and the series cannot tell those cases apart; no source names a cause. Nor is it a simple sign of money leaving crypto. No peg broke: the same DefiLlama read priced USDT at $0.9987 and USDC at $0.9998.

Two readings frame it. CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno counted declining bitcoin demand and shrinking stablecoin liquidity as two major challenges for the market, CryptoSlate reported on 7 November. The same day, CryptoSlate’s editor-in-chief Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright set the stablecoin drop between 28 October and 4 November (-$5.77 billion, -1.91%, about 63% of it USDT) against the Fed’s H.4.1 balance sheet, which showed US bank reserves up $67.6 billion to about $2.96 trillion over the same week. His piece leaves the link to bitcoin buying “unestablished”. Dollar balances grew inside the banking system while dollar tokens on chains shrank.

Bitcoin’s CPI week: Waller, CPI, a 10-year auction and Bowman inside eleven and a half hours

Monday opens the week, but Tuesday carries it. The Federal Reserve’s November calendar lists times in Eastern time, five hours behind UTC since US clocks changed on 1 November; Paris is one hour ahead of UTC.

Governor Christopher Waller opens Tuesday with an “Economic Outlook” speech at the Bank of England and its Watchers Conference in London, at 4:00 a.m. ET, or 09:00 UTC. October’s consumer price index follows at 8:30 a.m. ET, 13:30 UTC, on the BLS release schedule. Because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, the BLS says it “will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are not available”, so the monthly change is the headline for most series. Our Friday analysis gave the forecasts: +0.3% from RBC Economics and +0.24% headline from the Cleveland Fed nowcast of 6 November.

Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, appears four times. Monday’s slot, a discussion on community banking at the Mutual Board Summit in Boston at 8:40 a.m. ET (13:40 UTC), is on banking rather than the economy. The two that bear on rates come on Tuesday, both titled “Economic Outlook”: at 3:30 p.m. ET (20:30 UTC) in Washington, in the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics, and at 6:30 p.m. ET (23:30 UTC) online. Both fall after the CPI and after the auction.

The auction the earlier pieces left out

The Treasury’s quarterly refunding falls in the same week. In its refunding statement of 4 November, the Treasury said it would sell $125 billion of notes and bonds to refund about $97 billion of privately held notes maturing on 15 November, raising about $28 billion of new cash. The sales are a $58 billion 3-year note on Monday, a $42 billion 10-year note on Tuesday and a $25 billion 30-year bond on Thursday, each auctioned at 1:00 p.m. ET, 18:00 UTC.

The 10-year sale therefore closes four and a half hours after CPI, with the inflation figure already in the bids. Friday’s 10-year yield was 4.86%, after a 4.95% close on Tuesday 3 November, on the Yahoo Finance series used in our Friday piece. Sygnum’s chief investment officer Fabian Dori told CryptoSlate that investors should watch longer-term yields, which could decide whether financial conditions tighten further. Nobody has tied the auction itself to bitcoin; the timing is simply where the week’s two rate signals meet.

The retarget time and size are mempool.space estimates that shift with every block: at 17:51 UTC on Sunday the site expected a drop of about 5.2% around 14:00 UTC on Friday, against about 4.8% around 12:25 UTC at midday. The blockchain and earns a reward, which makes rewriting history very expensive.">mining side is in our report on the bitcoin difficulty drop due on 13 November. Governor Michael Barr speaks on artificial intelligence and inequality on Thursday at 15:00 UTC, Bowman discusses supervision on Friday at 15:50 UTC, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s speech is listed at 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday, 00:00 UTC on Saturday. The first US spot ETF flows of the week come after Monday’s 21:00 UTC close.

What would change the picture, and who names each level

No research note with new levels was published this weekend. The freshest views date from 4 to 7 November, several of them already in our Friday analysis, and most reach readers through press reports, so they are paraphrased below unless the original page confirmed the wording. None of the levels is Coindaro’s, and no source ties any of them to this week’s events: they describe where buyers, sellers and options sit, not where the price will go.

Glassnode’s wording on the floor of its band, in the note Idling at Support, was: “A sustained break below $73K would point to a longer consolidation.” The same note puts the short-term holder cost basis, the average price paid by recent buyers, at $75,700. The 17:44 UTC price of $75,668.73 sits almost on it, about 0.9% above Darkfost’s $75,000 and 1.1% below Huang’s $76,500. Huang’s line is the one the weekend sat under the whole time: Saturday’s high of $76,152.43 never reached it.

The options lines carry the caveat given above: the 13 November calls at $81,000 and puts at $74,000 sit on both sides of the price, and either side can be held by hedgers as easily as by speculators. For the macro lines, Tuesday’s order matters more than any single figure. Waller speaks before the CPI, the 10-year bids close after it, and Bowman’s two outlook speeches come once both are known.

What is still unknown

Several questions stay open on Sunday evening. Nothing published explains the 16:00 UTC dip, XRP’s heavy Sunday volume or RAIN’s 24-hour drop. No source names the reason the stablecoin supply is shrinking, and the single flat reading on Sunday may mean nothing. The liquidation total comes from one aggregator page, and the weekend volumes are Coinbase only. The first figures that will settle part of this come on Monday: CoinShares’ weekly fund-flow report, the 3-year auction at 18:00 UTC and the first ETF flows after the US close.