Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Thursday for the first time since mid-September, then won the ground back within hours. A sell-off in Korean chip stocks and a hot US producer price report pushed BTC to about $79,800, according to CoinDesk, before buyers lifted it back near $82,500. The bitcoin price today stood at about $82,170 at 08:30 UTC on Friday 16 October, up 1.2% over 24 hours, according to Coindaro market data.
The spell under $80,000 lasted about two hours. Close to $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions were forcibly closed around the drop, most of them bets on higher prices, according to CoinGlass data cited by The Block and Journal du Coin.
The recovery started in the bond market. US Treasury yields fell on Thursday and Wall Street closed higher, then Asian stocks bounced on Friday morning. Overnight, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to say whether the Fed will raise rates again on 28 October. On-chain data firms also report large holders adding coins.
Wednesday’s consumer price data, which first revived the hike bets, is covered in our report on the hot September CPI and bitcoin’s slide under $82,000.
Bitcoin price today: about $82,170 at 08:30 UTC, flat on the week
The bounce has repaired one bad day, not the week. In the Coindaro snapshot taken at 07:59 UTC, bitcoin was 1.22% higher over 24 hours but 0.39% lower over seven days, and the 08:30 UTC snapshot barely differed. Ether and the large altcoins rose more, after falling more on Thursday.
| Asset | Price (07:59 UTC, 16 Oct) | 24h | 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$82,100 | +1.22% | -0.39% |
| Ether (ETH) | $2,450 | +3.63% | -1.82% |
| Solana (SOL) | $106.1 | +3.28% | -3.90% |
| XRP | $1.34 | +2.18% | -4.30% |
| BNB | $729.7 | +1.41% | -1.68% |
| Zcash (ZEC) | $1,231 | +11.89% | +0.27% |
| Litecoin (LTC) | $60.66 | +4.14% | -5.12% |
| Bitcoin Cash (BCH) | $280 | +6.58% | -0.42% |
At 08:30 UTC the whole crypto market was worth $2.78 trillion, 0.48% less than a day earlier, with $89.1 billion traded over 24 hours. Bitcoin accounted for 59.2% of that value.
Seen from the summer, Thursday was a dent. Cryptoast traces bitcoin from about $64,000 in mid-July to about $78,000 at the end of August and above $86,000 at the end of September, before this week’s dip.
How bitcoin lost $80,000: a Korean chip sell-off, then a hot PPI
The first blow landed in Seoul. The Kospi closed 7.57% lower at 5,554.22 on Thursday, the Korea Herald reported, with Samsung Electronics down 9.48% and SK hynix down 11.06%. Circuit breakers halted trading on both the Kospi and the Kosdaq. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost about 5%, according to The Block.
The Korea Herald tied the sell-off to fears of further Fed hikes after the US consumer price data. DigitalToday also pointed to a new technology announcement from China’s memory maker CXMT, which raised competition worries for the two Korean chipmakers. CNBC, cited by DigitalToday, counted more than $1 trillion lost by the 20 largest AI and chip stocks over four sessions.
Crypto went down with them. At 03:50 UTC on Thursday bitcoin was 3.6% lower over 24 hours at $80,764, The Block reported. Ether had lost 6.5% to $2,353 and zcash 12.8% to $1,101.
PPI: producer prices up 1.3% in a month, the most since March 2022
The second blow came at 12:30 UTC. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said producer prices for final demand rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Economists had expected 0.5%, according to the TD Economics calendar. Over twelve months the index climbed 6.3%, the most since December 2022.
Energy did most of the work, up 10.8% in the month, with gasoline up 20.3%. Strip out food, energy and trade services and producer prices still rose 0.5% on the month and 5.0% on the year.
A day after the CPI surprise, that kept the idea of a second Fed hike alive. Bitcoin broke through a floor near $80,400 that buyers had defended twice the previous week, CoinDesk noted. Trader Lennaert Snyder, quoted by Journal du Coin, said the move below $80,000 came at the New York open.
Exact lows differ by exchange. CoinDesk gives about $79,800 and Journal du Coin $79,806, with a high of $82,508 in the session that followed. DigitalToday, using Coin360 data, has $79,950; Cointelegraph reported $80,154 on Bitstamp.
Close to $1 billion of liquidations, mostly long bets
Plenty of traders were using borrowed money. In the 24 hours to early Thursday, $951.4 million of crypto positions were liquidated, $876.3 million of them longs, The Block reported, citing CoinGlass. Journal du Coin, also citing CoinGlass, counted 173,758 traders liquidated for $929 million over Thursday, again mostly longs. The two totals cover different windows.
Ether traders were hit hard. On Binance alone, $106 million of long ether positions were closed in a single hour on Thursday, according to Journal du Coin.
A liquidation happens when a trader who borrowed to bet on a price move no longer has enough collateral to cover the loss. The exchange closes the position itself, which for a long means selling into a falling market. That forced selling deepens a drop while it lasts. Once it is over, fewer fragile positions are left.
Rick Maeda of Laevitas made that point to The Block: the size of the long liquidations “suggests significant leverage has already been flushed out.”
Treasury yields fell and Wall Street bounced
The 10-year US Treasury yield ended Thursday at 5.10%, down from 5.19% on Wednesday, according to US Treasury data reported by Criptovaluta.it. Journal du Coin puts it at 5.09%. In Asian trading on Friday it edged up one basis point to 5.07%, CoinDesk said.
Why should a bitcoin holder care? Bond yields set the return on an asset with almost no credit risk. When a 10-year Treasury pays above 5%, assets that pay nothing, gold and bitcoin among them, look less attractive at the margin, and a fall in yields eases that pressure.
US stocks rose with bonds. The Dow Jones gained 1.1% to 52,177.69 and the S&P 500 0.3% to 7,744.06, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% to 26,713.03, according to the Associated Press closing figures. Smaller companies did better: the Russell 2000 rose 1.4%.
Oil gave little relief. Brent crude was at $105.14 a barrel, down 0.73%, with attacks on shipping continuing around the Strait of Hormuz in the US-Iran conflict, Criptovaluta.it reported.
Asia followed on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 1.3%, CoinDesk reported, and Criptovaluta.it had the Kospi up 3.77% at 5,763, with Samsung up 4.50% and SK Hynix 3.30%. TSMC slipped despite an upbeat outlook. Bitcoin gained 1.3% in Asian hours to nearly $82,000.
Warsh in Bangkok: “I don’t prejudge meetings”
The other overnight driver was Kevin Warsh. At about 03:30 UTC on Friday, in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, the Fed chair gave no signal on 28 October.
“I don’t prejudge meetings,” Warsh said, according to the Associated Press. Of September’s quarter-point increase, the Fed’s first in three years, which lifted its key rate to about 3.9%, he said “we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago.”
He did not soften on inflation. “We made very clear we’d deliver price stability,” he said, NBC News reported. Warsh called artificial intelligence “the most consequential change to the U.S. and the global economy in my lifetime” (AP) and warned that the road there was “likely to be a very bumpy one” (NBC). CryptoPotato reported that he spoke of a “synchronous tightening” by central banks around the world.
The odds of an October move had already been falling. CME FedWatch put the chance of a hike on 28 October at 27.7% on Thursday, down from 33.2% the day before and a 53% peak on Wednesday, according to Journal du Coin. After Warsh spoke, the implied probability fell to about 15%, CryptoPotato reported, citing the Financial Times; Coindaro could not check that figure on FedWatch. A hike by the 9 December meeting was still priced at 89.3% on Thursday.
These were the last Fed remarks before the blackout period that starts on Saturday 17 October and runs through the meeting, NBC noted.
Bitcoin whales bought the dip between $80,000 and $86,000
While leveraged traders were forced out, larger holders kept buying, according to three data firms. Santiment counts a record 20,338 wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, a group that has grown since mid-July, Cryptoast reported on Friday.
CryptoQuant points the same way. In a report dated 13 October, it said holders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, excluding exchanges and mining pools, held 3.03 million BTC, the most since 21 November 2025. Its founder Ki Young Ju said these whales had moved from selling to accumulating, and that ETFs were net buyers again, Cryptoast reported. Bitfinex analysts, cited by Journal du Coin, estimate whales have bought about 60,000 BTC since late August, mostly between $80,000 and $86,000.
That band is now the one traders watch. CoinDesk said they were eyeing $84,000, where Wednesday’s post-CPI spike faded. Snyder sees first resistance at $83,000 and $85,000 as a level price tends to be drawn to, Journal du Coin reported. These are their readings, not Coindaro forecasts.
Spot bitcoin ETFs: $5.06 million of net inflows on Thursday
US spot bitcoin ETFs barely moved on Thursday. They took in a net $5.06 million, according to SoSoValue data reported by TokenPost. BlackRock’s IBIT was the only one of 12 funds with inflows, at $16.79 million, while Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) lost $7.64 million and Invesco Galaxy’s BTCO $4.09 million.
Trading in the funds reached $2.28 billion. Their total net assets stood at $105.71 billion, about 6.41% of bitcoin’s market value, and cumulative net inflows since launch at $56.96 billion.
Wednesday had brought a $261.5 million outflow, led by Fidelity’s FBTC (about $153 million) and IBIT (about $111 million), after a $176 million inflow on Tuesday 13 October, according to TokenPost and Journal du Coin. Early October saw the same swings, described in our report on the $681 million weekly ETF outflow.
Crypto market today: zcash, litecoin and bitcoin cash led the rebound
Older proof-of-work coins bounced hardest. Zcash was up 11.89% over 24 hours at $1,231 at 07:59 UTC, after losing 11.5% on Thursday to a low of $1,077, according to Journal du Coin. Bitcoin cash gained 6.58% to $280 and litecoin 4.14% to $60.66 in the same snapshot.
Both of those have outrun bitcoin lately: Journal du Coin has litecoin up 19.7% and bitcoin cash up 26% over 30 days. It reads Friday’s move as a technical bounce for now, with money going back into decade-old networks as traders cut leverage.
Ether rose 3.63% to $2,450 at 07:59 UTC, after an overnight range of $2,325 to $2,463, per Journal du Coin. Celestia’s TIA was among the day’s biggest gainers, up 24.88% at 07:59 UTC; The Defiant reported that TIA had climbed 59% in four weeks even as daily demand for its data blobs slipped. No catalyst was found for the 27% jump in INJ.
Fear & Greed index back at 63, in “Greed”
Sentiment came back faster than prices. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me read 63, or “Greed”, on Friday, up from 53 (“Neutral”) on Thursday. It was 62 on Wednesday and 57 on Tuesday. The index combines volatility, trading volume, social media activity and bitcoin dominance into a score from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed).
What to watch today and next week
Friday 16 October
- The weekly Deribit options expiry passed at 08:00 UTC. The 16 October contracts had gone from Deribit’s public data by 08:26 UTC, a sign they had settled; their size was not measured before expiry.
- Eurostat is scheduled to publish its final September inflation figure for the euro area at 09:00 UTC. The flash estimate of 2 October put annual inflation at 3.8%, with core inflation at 2.5%.
- At 13:15 UTC the Fed publishes September industrial production and capacity utilisation. The TD Economics calendar has a consensus of +0.4% on the month, after 0.0% in August, and capacity use at 76.5%.
- Tokenomist lists about $18.2 million of ARB due to unlock around 12:52 UTC and about $12.0 million of DBR around 23:52 UTC, followed by about $68.5 million of CRO around 00:56 UTC on Saturday. Our glossary explains how a token unlock works.
- The IMF and World Bank meetings continue in Bangkok until 18 October. The Fed blackout begins on Saturday.
Next week and the Fed decision
Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade is due to activate on Wednesday 21 October at 15:00 UTC, cutting finality from 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds. The activation date and what Alpenglow changes are in our earlier report.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 27 and 28 October, with the decision at 18:00 UTC on 28 October. The next US consumer price report is due on 10 November, after that meeting.
Deribit options: max pain at $82,000 next week, $79,000 for October
Options on Deribit, the largest crypto options venue, add two dates. The figures below are a Coindaro calculation from Deribit’s public market data at 08:26 UTC on 16 October, not numbers published by Deribit.
| Expiry (08:00 UTC) | BTC notional | Put/call ratio | Max pain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday 23 October (weekly) | ~$1.12 billion | 1.26 | $82,000 |
| Friday 30 October (monthly) | ~$12.4 billion (~150,400 BTC) | 0.52 | $79,000 |
The 30 October expiry is by far the larger. Its biggest open positions are calls at $95,000 (25,600 BTC), $90,000 and $100,000. Ether options for the same date carry about $696 million of notional, with max pain at $2,500.
“Max pain” is the strike at which the most options, by value, would expire worthless. It shows where option buyers as a group would lose most, not where the price will go. A put/call ratio above 1 means more open bets on a fall than on a rise.
In euros: about €73,250, with euro-area inflation at 3.8%
At the ECB reference rate of 1.1208 dollars per euro set on 15 October, bitcoin’s 07:59 UTC price was worth about €73,250. Euro-area inflation is running far above the ECB’s 2% target: September’s flash estimates put France at 3.4%, Italy at 4.1% and Spain at 5.0%. The ECB raised its key rates by a quarter point on 10 September, its second increase this year, part of the global tightening Warsh described.
What is still unknown
CoinGlass does not publish its liquidation totals in a machine-readable page, so the figures here come from outlets citing it. The 15 October ETF flow could not be checked against Farside. The post-Warsh FedWatch probability comes from a report citing the Financial Times and was not read on CME’s own tool. Eurostat’s final September figure was not out when this piece was written.
Next on the US calendar: industrial production at 13:15 UTC today, then the Fed decision on 28 October at 18:00 UTC.